What changed
At COP31 in Antalya, China is presenting its climate commitments alongside reported evidence of implementation. Its 2035 target covers the whole economy and all greenhouse gases, with an absolute emissions-reduction goal; a new ecological-environment code took effect in August 2026.
The figures are substantial: China’s carbon intensity fell 5.0% in 2025, its green low-carbon industries were valued at about 11 trillion yuan, and cumulative carbon-market allowance trading exceeded 917 million tonnes by June 2026. Electric-vehicle production and sales have led globally for 11 consecutive years.
Why it matters
China’s climate policy is moving into a more measurable phase. The question is no longer only what targets say, but whether laws, markets and industrial investment can keep turning them into lower emissions.
That shift is visible in the carbon market and in local projects. Smart kilns in Jingdezhen have raised production efficiency by 80% while cutting energy use per unit by 30%. Jiangsu’s Yancheng has restored 20,000 hectares of carbon-rich coastal wetlands. In Hainan, clean energy accounts for 88% of installed capacity, while the island’s Hainan gibbon population has recovered to 44 animals across seven groups.
A research institute’s projection says China could reach peak carbon emissions between 2027 and 2029 if the next five years of policy measures are implemented effectively. That is a forecast, not a result already secured. Its importance lies in the test it sets: whether China can sustain the reported gains while expanding a transition whose scale affects the availability and cost of clean technologies well beyond its borders.
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