China’s Old-Age Dependency Ratio Surpasses Children’s for First Time

What changed

China’s old-age dependency ratio reached 23.1% in 2025, overtaking the child dependency ratio of 22% for the first time.

That reflects a stark population shift:

• More than 223 million people in China were aged 65 or older.
• Around 213 million were aged 14 or younger.
• The old-age ratio rose from 15% in 2016 to above 20% in 2021.

Why it matters

China is now supporting more older people than children in this demographic comparison. That changes the pressure on families, public services and policymakers, even before counting the economic effects of a smaller future workforce.

The shift is tied to two forces moving in opposite directions: the birth rate has fallen to a record low, while the population has declined for a fourth consecutive year. The one-child policy, in place from 1980 to 2015, and rapid urbanisation helped shape the demographic pattern now visible in the numbers.

Authorities have introduced family subsidies, childcare support and lower childbirth-related medical costs. They have also promised to make urban life more supportive for young people, children and families. Whether those measures can materially alter fertility or ageing trends remains uncertain, and their cost and effectiveness have not been quantified.

For now, the clearest signal is the crossing itself: older people have moved ahead of children in China’s dependency balance.