China’s Q3 Growth Beats Forecasts, Bringing Annual Target Within Reach

What changed

China’s economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, up from 4.3% in the second quarter and slightly ahead of the 4.4% median forecast. Growth for the first nine months reached 4.6%, putting Beijing’s annual target of 4.5% to 5% within reach.

Why it matters

The stronger quarter makes it less urgent for policymakers to add economic support. Larger fiscal spending helped fixed-asset investment and retail sales, giving businesses and consumers a lift.

The near-term outlook is better, but the recovery still looks uneven. If fiscal support proves unstable or insufficient, the economy could face renewed downside pressure in 2027. Whether Beijing keeps spending at this pace will now matter as much as the headline growth rate.