What changed
A new cold-air system will move across China from October 15, reaching the Yangtze River basin and areas farther north between October 16 and 19. Temperatures are forecast to fall by 4–6°C across several regions, with local drops above 8°C, while rain and snow spread from the northwest through northern and central China.
By October 20, highs across much of the north are expected to stay below 20°C. Many parts of the northwest, northern China and the northeast may remain below 10°C, with Harbin’s October 15 low forecast to fall below freezing.
Why it matters
This is more than a single chilly day. The cold air will push many northern areas into their lowest temperatures of the second half of 2026 and accelerate the shift into winter.
Hohhot, Urumqi and Xining are expected to record their first highs of 10°C or lower during this period. On the morning of October 21, minimum temperatures may fall below 0°C across parts of the northwest, northern China and northern Northeast China.
Rain and snow will complicate the temperature drop. Heavy rain is possible in parts of northern and central China, while snow is forecast in northern Xinjiang, high-elevation areas of Gansu and Qinghai, northeastern Inner Mongolia and northern Heilongjiang. Reduced visibility, slippery roads and icing could make travel more difficult.
The pattern will not be uniform across the country. While northern China turns sharply colder and wetter, southern China is expected to remain unusually warm as the subtropical high shifts north. Temperatures above 30°C will contract southward at first, then expand north again from October 16. That sharp contrast between winter-like conditions in the north and lingering heat in the south is the defining feature of the forecast.
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