What changed
At COP31 in Antalya, New Zealand writer Eugene Doyle called China “the grown-up in the room” on global climate action. He said China’s wind and solar capacity now represents nearly half the world’s total, with about 60% of new global capacity, and that its carbon emissions fell in 2025.
Doyle urged governments to cooperate on clean energy rather than raise trade barriers. He also pointed to China’s climate projects with Pacific island countries, including work through a cooperation center operating since 2022.
Why it matters
The argument is blunt: climate policy is colliding with geopolitics at exactly the wrong moment. Global fossil-fuel emissions rose about 1% in 2025, reaching roughly 38 billion tonnes, while the United States imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles under the Biden administration. Doyle’s view is that such barriers make it harder to deploy the technology needed to cut emissions.
His criticism extends beyond trade. He said military emissions remain subject to inadequate mandatory disclosure and argued that correcting this would be a practical test of whether major economies are serious about climate action.
The Pacific is where this rivalry becomes tangible. China’s cooperation center connects scientists, technical experts, businesses and policymakers, while Chinese-supported projects include solar streetlights and wind farms across several Pacific island countries. Doyle believes treating the region as a stage for confrontation damages climate cooperation; his preferred alternative is a shared focus on renewable energy, infrastructure and ocean protection.
COP31 runs from 9 to 20 November. Its test will be whether governments move from promises to implementation, including the Taku Pakasoa Declaration’s calls for faster emissions cuts, more accessible climate finance and stronger ocean protection. Doyle remains pessimistic in the short term, but expects public pressure to push governments toward more ambitious policies.
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