What changed
The European Union has capped tariff-free steel imports at 18.3 million tonnes a year, 47% below 2024 levels, and Ukraine remains inside the restrictions. Metinvest chief executive Yuriy Ryzhenkov says Ukrainian steel exports to the EU could ultimately fall by 50–60% and is asking for a carve-out.
Why it matters
This is a trade measure colliding with a wartime economy. The EU is Ukraine’s biggest steel customer, while Ukrainian mills have been repeatedly bombed and the country’s steel industry is already operating under severe physical and logistical pressure.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, metallurgy and mining generated roughly 10% of Ukraine’s national income and one-third of its exports. Ryzhenkov said there was a point in September when Ukraine produced no steel at all, and he expects the coming winter to be among the hardest in the country’s history.
The EU says Ukraine has a specific quota and that compensation was offered to major suppliers, but acknowledges the quota is lower than in previous years. The core dispute is therefore not whether Ukraine has access, but whether that access is large enough to keep an already battered industry alive.
A 50–60% export decline remains uncertain, as does any EU decision to grant an exemption. But the direction is clear: a policy designed to shield European steelmakers from cheap imports also reduces room for one of Ukraine’s key surviving export industries.
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