What changed
An August paper titled “Terra Incognita: The Economy of a Shrinking World” argues that global fertility has probably fallen below the replacement level of about 2.2 births per woman. It forecasts that population growth will continue through demographic momentum, reaching nearly 9 billion around 2056 before declining, sooner than the United Nations projection of a 2084 peak.
Why it matters
The shift is already concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. Colombia’s fertility rate was estimated at 1.01 in 2025, compared with 1.45 in Tunisia in 2024 and 1.51 in Mexico in 2025. That overturns the old pattern in which poorer countries generally had more children than richer ones.
The proposed explanation is practical rather than mysterious: education makes children more expensive, traditional family support is weaker, careers collide with biological time, and women’s opportunities have expanded faster than men’s share of childcare. A third child becomes a major financial and logistical commitment, while having no children carries fewer economic penalties.
That creates a problem markets do not automatically solve. Cheaper housing in a shrinking society may help, but it is unlikely on its own to restore fertility. Governments could try to change the incentives, but the paper argues that policy and demographic adaptation work too slowly to guarantee a reversal.
The outlook remains a forecast, not an established result. If the paper’s earlier peak is right, employers and working-age populations will face a long transition toward slower economic growth, with fewer people generating new ideas and filling jobs. The immediate story is not that the world is suddenly empty; it is that population growth may be running on borrowed momentum.
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