What changed
Uganda’s army chief, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has intensified a crackdown that has seen at least a dozen generals and senior officers arrested over the past 15 months. This week, the 52-year-old threatened Vice-President Jessica Alupo with dismissal and possible arrest, while suggesting he should take her position.
The moves sharpen a succession struggle around President Yoweri Museveni, who has ruled Uganda for four decades. The ruling National Resistance Movement met on 10 November but has not publicly endorsed Kainerugaba as Museveni’s successor.
Why it matters
This is no longer just a question of who commands Uganda’s military. Kainerugaba is using that power while openly testing his place in the civilian political order.
The pressure is visible in the treatment of Lt Gen Peter Elwelu, a former deputy army chief detained on 2 November over alleged plans to destabilise the eastern Teso region. Kainerugaba had accused him of treachery, stripped him of his three-star rank and demoted him. Some other detained officers have reportedly been released after securing Kainerugaba’s forgiveness.
That makes loyalty within the armed forces part of the succession contest. Officers seen as resisting Kainerugaba’s ambitions may face detention or corruption and treason charges. Others interpret the arrests as an anti-corruption campaign. The uncertainty matters because the same crackdown can look either like discipline inside the military or an effort to remove rivals before a presidential bid.
Kainerugaba still lacks the decisive political backing that would turn military influence into a clear succession route. The NRM has rejected claims that its leadership refused to support him, calling those reports false, but it has not announced an endorsement. Until that changes, Uganda’s succession question remains suspended between the army chief’s public pressure and the party’s unresolved decision.
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