What changed
Russia’s Kremlin appears set to continue its full-scale invasion of Ukraine after September’s tightly controlled parliamentary vote strengthened United Russia’s position in the State Duma. Vladimir Putin now has a more pro-Kremlin parliament behind him, while Ukraine is struggling to intercept Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.
Why it matters
The political message is blunt: Moscow still believes time may work in its favour. Russia has suffered heavy battlefield losses and economic damage, but its leadership appears encouraged by Ukraine’s air-defence shortages and expects winter strikes to increase pressure on the country.
That puts European governments under renewed strain. The Kremlin wants military and financial support for Kyiv reduced, and Sergei Lavrov says Russia regards European weapons supplied to Ukraine as part of a war against Russia. European officials, meanwhile, accuse Moscow of escalating a grey-zone campaign involving cyber-attacks, sabotage and drones entering European airspace.
The next meaningful signal is Putin’s appearance at the Valdai Discussion Club on Thursday. He may offer no diplomatic initiative at all. If his remarks instead reinforce confidence in a military victory, the likely direction is continued fighting, more pressure on Ukraine’s air defences and sharper tensions between Russia and European governments.
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