AmaHouthi Abika Ngokuziphindiselela KweSaudi Ngemva Kokuhlaselwa Kwezindawo Zikawoyela

Okushintshile

Ngokombiko we-France 24, amaHouthi athe iSaudi Arabia iziphindiselele ngoLwesibili ngemva kokuba leli qembu liqondise izikhungo zikawoyela, kanti kubikwe ukuthi kulimele inqwaba yabantu. Lokhu kuhlaselana kwenzeka ngemva kokuba isivumelwano sokumisa impi esasithathe iminyaka emine phakathi kwamaHouthi nohulumeni osekelwa yiSaudi sihlakazeke ngoJulayi, ngesikhathi ukuhlasela kwamaHouthi kusondela eBab al-Mandab, umzila obalulekile wemikhumbi eYemen.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Ingqalasizinda kawoyela nomzila waseBab al-Mandab yizindawo ezimbili lapho impi yendawo ingaba nemiphumela ephesheya kakhulu. Uma ukuhlolwa kwezikhungo kuthola umonakalo okhawulela ukukhiqizwa noma ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela waseSaudi, ukushoda kukawoyela ongahluziwe kungakhuphula izindleko zikaphethiloli kwezokuthutha nakwabanye abathengi. Uma ukusebenza kuhlala kungaphazamisekile, lolo chungechunge lwemiphumela luyancipha ngokushesha.

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okusekelwe olwazini): umbuzo wokuqala obalulekile ngowokuthi lokhu kuwukuhlasela okwethusayo noma okuphazamisa ukusebenza. Uma umthamo wokukhiqiza nezinqolobane zaseSaudi kugcina ukuthunyelwa kuqhubeka, umphumela osheshayo ungase ube ukuqiniswa kwezinhlelo zokuphepha nokuguquguquka kwamanani, hhayi ukushaqeka okuhlala isikhathi eside ezindlekweni zikaphethiloli. Uma ukuhlasela kuphindaphindwa noma impi ifinyelela ekusebenzeni kwasolwandle, izinqumo zokuthumela imikhumbi eduze neBab al-Mandab zingase ziqaphe kakhudlwana, okungenza imizila namashejuli kubize kakhulu ukuqhuba.

Ukuqhathanisa nomlando

Isifaniso somlando esiseduze nesilusizo kakhulu ukuhlasela kwango-14 Septhemba 2019 esikhungweni sokucubungula sase-Abqaiq nasensimini kawoyela yaseKhurais yeSaudi Aramco. Zombili lezi zehlakalo zibeke ingqalasizinda kawoyela waseSaudi ngaphansi kokuhlaselwa ngesikhathi sokungqubuzana kwesifunda, okwenza ukuncipha kwangempela kokuhlinzekwa kubaluleke kakhulu kunokwesaba kukodwa.

Nokho umehluko mkhulu: ukuhlasela kwango-2019 kwashayisa izikhungo ezisempumalanga yeSaudi, kanti umbiko wamanje weFrance 24 uphathelene nezikhungo eziseningizimu nezinsiza ezixhumene nomzila woLwandle Olubomvu, futhi awuqinisekisi umonakalo noma ukulahleka komkhiqizo. I-U.S. Energy Information Administration yathi iBrent neWTI kwenyuka ngo-$9 nango-$8 emgqonyeni ngosuku lokuqala lokuhweba ngemva kokuhlasela kwango-2019, zase zibuyela emazingeni angaphambi kokuhlaselwa ekupheleni kwenyanga njengoba iSaudi Arabia yabuyisela ukukhiqiza phakathi namasonto kanti ukukhiqiza okunamandla kwe-U.S. kwasiza ukunciphisa umphumela. Lokho kusikisela ukuthi okubalulekile okufanele kubhekwe manje akusona isasasa lokuhlasela, kodwa ukuthi imiphongolo nemikhumbi kuyama ngempela yini ukuhamba.

Indlela imiphumela engasabalala ngayo

Uma ukuhlolwa kuqinisekisa umonakalo okhawulela ukukhiqiza noma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, ukuncipha kukawoyela ongahluziwe otholakalayo kungandisa umuzwa wokushoda ezimakethe zikawoyela. Abacwengi nabathengisi bakaphethiloli bangase badlulisele kubathengi izindleko zabo eziphakeme uma amanani ehlala ephezulu futhi bengakwazi ukuzithwala.

Lokhu kudluliselwa kwemiphumela kunganqanyulwa ezindaweni eziningi. Izikhungo ezingonakalanga, izinqolobane zaseSaudi, umthamo ohlukile, noma okunye ukuhlinzekwa kungagcina ukuthunyelwa kuqhubeka futhi kunciphise umphumela ungakafinyeleli ezikweletini zikaphethiloli.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

| Abathintekayo | Umphumela wesikhathi esiseduze | Okungawushintsha | |---|---|---| | Abaqhubi bezikhungo zikawoyela zaseSaudi | Ukuhlolwa kwezokuphepha ngokushesha nezinyathelo zokuqapha ukusebenza | Umonakalo oqinisekisiwe noma umthamo olahlekile | | Izakhamuzi zaseYemen ezindaweni ezithintekile | Ukuchayeka okukhulu ekuphazamisekeni ngenxa yokuvuseleleka kwempi | Ukuthi umjikelezo wokuhlaselana uyakhula yini | | Abaqhubi bemikhumbi yoLwandle Olubomvu | Ukuhlola kabusha ubungozi bomzila | Ukuthi impi iyakuthinta yini ukuhamba kwemikhumbi eduze neBab al-Mandab | | Abathengi bakaphethiloli nabaqhubi bezokuthutha | Izindleko ezingase zenyuke emasontweni ezayo | Ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe okuhambisana nokulahleka kwangempela kokuhlinzekwa |

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu: Uma ukuhlola kuthola ukuphazamiseka okulinganiselwe noma okulawulekayo futhi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuqhubeka ngomthamo ojwayelekile noma ohlukile, abaqhubi bazogxila ekubuyiseleni ukusebenza kuyilapho izimakethe zibeka amanani ngokwengozi yezokuphepha kunokushoda okuthatha isikhathi eside. Abathengi bezokuthutha nabasebenzisa uphethiloli bangabhekana nokuguquguquka, kodwa ukudluliselwa kwezindleko kungaba kuncane futhi kungahlali. Lesi simo siyaqina uma umonakalo ulinganiselwe futhi ukunyakaza kwamanani kuyancipha.

Okungcono: Uma lokhu kuhlaselana kuhlala kunqunyelwe futhi kungabi khona ukuhlasela okuqhubekayo ekusebenzeni kukawoyela noma ekuhambeni kwemikhumbi yokuhweba, izinkampani zemikhumbi zingabuyela ekuhleleni kwazo okujwayelekile kwezokuphepha futhi abathengi babe nesidingo esincane sokuqinisekisa ukuhlinzekwa okwengeziwe esikhathini esiseduze. Lokhu kuncike ekutheni kungabi khona ukuphazamiseka okuqinisekisiwe ekukhiqizeni, ekuthumeleni kwamanye amazwe, noma ekuthuthweni ngemikhumbi.

Okubi: Uma ukuhlasela okuphindaphindwayo noma umonakalo oqinisekisiwe kunciphisa umkhiqizo noma ukuthunyelwa kukawoyela waseSaudi ngesikhathi ingozi yokungqubuzana ishintsha izinqumo zokuhamba kwemikhumbi eduze neBab al-Mandab, izindleko zikawoyela ongahluziwe nezikaphethiloli zingakhuphuka futhi abaqhubi bezokuthutha bangalungisa amashejuli noma bathwale izindleko eziphakeme zokusebenza. Lesi simo singaqina ngokunyuka kwamanani okuqhubekayo okuhambisana nokulahleka kwangempela kokuhlinzekwa, bese siba buthaka uma ukulungisa, izinqolobane, noma umthamo ohlukile kugcina ukuthunyelwa kuqhubeka.

Okufanele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

• Ukuthi abaqhubi bezikhungo zikawoyela zaseSaudi bayawuthola yini umonakalo, ukulahleka komkhiqizo, ukuphazamiseka kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, noma izinyathelo zokubuyisela ukusebenza.
• Ukuthi abaqhubi bemikhumbi bayayishintsha yini imizila, amashejuli, noma izinyathelo zokuphepha eduze neBab al-Mandab.
• Ukuthi noma yikuphi ukunyakaza kwamanani kawoyela kuhlala yini ngemva kokuvela kwamaqiniso ngokusebenza.
• Ukuthi okunye ukuhlasela kuyakwandisa yini ukulwa ngemva kokuwa kwesivumelwano sokumisa impi.