El Niño Threatens to Deepen Southern Africa’s Poverty Crisis

What changed

Southern Africa is heading into the 2026–27 agricultural season with a greater-than-50% probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, potentially extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique and Madagascar.

The warning comes as geopolitical conflicts raise energy and supply-chain costs, while humanitarian resources are under pressure. Farmers are already planting, leaving governments a narrow window to prepare.

Why it matters

This is not only a weather problem. A poor harvest would hit food supplies and household incomes just as aid agencies have fewer resources to respond. The previous El Niño cycle left 61 million people needing assistance and pushed more than 8 million into food insecurity.

Governments now face practical choices with little time. Countries that can import food need reliable access to grain, livestock feed and private-sector supply routes. Temporary relaxation of import restrictions may become necessary where food needs rise.

Export bans could look protective, but they may deepen the regional shock. They can discourage farmers and agribusinesses from expanding production later, while pushing prices higher in countries that depend on imports.

The outlook remains uncertain: the drought’s severity, reach, crop losses and effect on poverty are not yet known. But the central risk is already clear. Decisions made before the rains are fully understood could determine whether a difficult season becomes a manageable shortage or a wider food crisis.