National Transmission Company’s Optimistic Power Outlook Relies on Fragile Assumptions

What changed

The National Transmission Company South Africa’s 2027–2036 electricity outlook says South Africa can largely avoid renewed shortages if Eskom’s recovery continues, replacement power arrives on time, the transmission grid expands, and new gas generation comes from 2032. Published on 30 October 2026, the outlook’s high-demand case reaches 329.7 TWh of electricity and 49.1 GW of peak demand by 2036, while still recording 13.42 GWh of unserved energy and 377 hours of unmet demand. Its confidence arrives just two days after the government’s first gas-to-power procurement round failed.

Why it matters

This is an optimistic forecast with a lot of moving parts. The system is not being judged against flat demand: sent-out electricity rises from 238.3 TWh in 2026 to 329.7 TWh in 2036, while peak demand climbs from 35.8 GW to 49.1 GW.

At the same time, about 16.2 GW of Eskom capacity is expected to retire by 2036, including 8.75 GW in 2029 and 2030. Contracts covering 1,150 MW from Cahora Bassa and 1,005 MW from the Avon and Dedisa peaking plants are also assumed to expire in 2030.

The key bet is that Eskom’s energy availability factor will rise from 66% in financial year 2027 to 70% by 2031 and stay there. That would be a meaningful recovery from 56% in 2023, but applying a better percentage to a smaller, ageing fleet does not automatically produce more available electricity.

The outlook’s central promise therefore depends less on one impressive number than on timing. If Eskom performs, renewable and storage projects arrive, transmission upgrades keep pace and gas generation is delivered from 2032, shortages can largely be avoided. If those pieces slip, the remaining margin is already narrow: the model still includes unmet demand even under its Reference Case.