Arab Parties Could Hold Balance of Power in Israeli Election

What changed

Arab-majority parties could hold the balance of power in Israel’s general election next week. Polls show neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu Change Bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, with a clear route to a majority.

That leaves a stark choice after the vote: anti-Netanyahu parties may need Arab support or a formal deal with Arab-majority lists, despite Eisenkot’s pledge not to form a government with them.

Why it matters

Arab citizens make up about a fifth of Israel’s population, but their political influence depends on turning out. In Nazareth, students are urging voters to participate, arguing that removing what they call an extremist government matters more than past disaffection with Israeli politics.

The contradiction is hard to miss. Arab parties may become essential to forming the next government while facing deeper mistrust after the 7 October 2023 Hamas-led assault and the Gaza war. Arab rights advocates describe arrests, workplace dismissals and shrinking space for speech. Civil society groups also accuse the government of cutting Arab community budgets disproportionately; ministers say wartime defence needs require the reductions.

My reading is that this election could force Israel’s political system to confront a question it has repeatedly avoided: can Arab citizens be treated as decisive voters without being accepted as legitimate partners in power?

That pressure cuts both ways. Cooperation could help anti-Netanyahu parties assemble a government, but reversing their promises could also expose how little room remains between electoral arithmetic and the political language of exclusion. Whether Arab parties win enough seats to matter, and whether their potential partners change course, will become clear only after the ballots are counted.