China Climate Centre Says Super El Niño Formed in September

What changed

China’s National Climate Centre said a “super El Niño” formed in September after the Pacific warmed rapidly from May through September. Temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3°C above average, and the centre said the event could become the strongest recorded since systematic monitoring began.

Why it matters

The warmest waters are expected to keep heating through the next three months, peaking in late autumn or early winter. The United Nations weather body forecasts temperatures 3.7°C above normal from October to December.

That combination raises the risk of hotter global weather and disrupted rainfall. El Niño can bring drought to some regions and heavy rain to others, so the same ocean event can mean very different problems depending on where you are.

The informed guess is that this will be a major test of weather systems already facing unusual heat. But its regional effects remain uncertain: the centre has not said exactly how rainfall and temperatures will vary from place to place, or whether this will ultimately rank as the strongest monitored event.