What changed
Japan has dropped out of the top 10 overseas destinations chosen by Chinese travellers for the 2026 National Day holiday period, after ranking first in 2025. Tuniu’s new list puts Indonesia, Turkey and South Korea among the leading destinations, while Chinese visitors to Japan fell 56.4% year on year in the first half of 2026.
Why it matters
This is a sharp shift in the travel map between two major Asian neighbours. Chinese authorities advised citizens against travelling to Japan in November 2025, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a response from Japan’s defence forces.
The timing makes the political backdrop hard to ignore. But the figures do not show how much of Japan’s decline comes from official advice and tensions, rather than prices, schedules or other travel choices.
The contrast is especially striking during a holiday period expected to generate 2.13 billion domestic trips in China through Oct. 7, including about 340 million on Oct. 1 alone. More than 90% of that domestic travel is expected to be by car, with tolls waived and over 10,000 fast-charging stations installed in 2026.
For now, Japan’s absence looks like a holiday-period warning sign rather than proof of a permanent realignment. The next question is whether Chinese travellers return after the break, or whether South Korea, Indonesia and Turkey keep the ground Japan has lost.
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