I-Iran Ihlasela Isizinda saseJordani Esisetshenziswa yi-US Nemikhumbi Eduze NeStrait of Hormuz

Okushintshile

Ngokwemibiko ye-The Citizen Tanzania, i-Revolutionary Guard yase-Iran ithe idubule imicibisholo esizindeni esisetshenziswa yi-US eduze kwase-Al Azraq, eJordani, yahlasela nemikhumbi eyi-10, okuhlanganisa imikhumbi emibili yase-US nemikhumbi eyisishiyagalombili ethwala uwoyela, eduze neStrait of Hormuz. Lokhu kulandele isitatimende samasosha ase-US sokuthi acekele phansi imikhumbi emihlanu yase-Iran ethwala uwoyela ngoLwesibili; iJordani ithe ivimbe imicibisholo eyi-18 kwengama-20 futhi yabika ukuthi akubanga nalimala, kanti intengo kawoyela i-Brent isondele ku-$100 umphongolo ngoLwesithathu.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Lokhu akuseyona nje impambano yezempi. Kubeka ingcindezi ezinhlelweni ezisekela umnotho wamandla. IStrait of Hormuz yindawo lapho ukuphazamiseka kokuthunyelwa ngemikhumbi kungashesha kuphenduke ukulibaziseka kwemithwalo, ukwenyuka kwezindleko zokuthutha nezomshwalense, nezinqumo ezinzima zokuthenga zamabhizinisi athenga uphethiloli noma izinto ezidinga amandla amaningi ukuze zikhiqizwe.

Umbuzo ophuthumayo awugcini ngokuthi umkhumbi uke waqondiswa yini. Umbuzo uwukuthi abaqhubi bazoqhubeka yini nokudlulisa imikhumbi ngalo mzila i-Iran ewuchaza njengongaphephile. Umkhumbi othwala uwoyela obambezelekile uyisithiyo esihambayo: izindawo zokucwenga zingase zithole uwoyela ongahluziwe sekwephuzile, abahlinzeki bangase bakhokhise kakhulu ukuze bavale ingozi, futhi amakhasimende asezansi ochungechungeni angase abhekane nezikweletu zamandla eziphakeme.

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okunolwazi): emasontweni azayo, izinqumo zokuqapha mayelana nokudlula zingagcina izindleko zokusebenza zemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela ziphezulu uma izigameko ziqhubeka, nakuba umthelela ungancipha uma ukudlula okuvamile kuqala kabusha ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo kokulethwa.

Indlela imithelela engasabalala ngayo

Ukuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi nokuvinjelwa kokuhamba eHormuz kwandisa ingozi ebonakalayo yohambo. Abaqhubi bangashintsha imizila, babambezele ukuhamba noma bafune isinxephezelo esikhulu ngalolo hambo. Uma lezo zinqumo zibambezela ukuthunyelwa, abathengi bathola uwoyela ongahluziwe othunyelwa ngolwandle sekwephuzile.

Lokhu kungadlulela nangale kwezokuthutha ngemikhumbi. Izindawo zokucwenga nabahlinzeki bakaphethiloli bangase babhekane nezindleko eziphakeme zikawoyela ongahluziwe nezokuthutha; uma bezidlulisela phambili, amabhizinisi asebenzisa uwoyela angathwala izindleko eziphakeme zezinto azidingayo emasontweni azayo. Lolu chungechunge luyaxega uma ezinye izimpahla, izinqolobane noma imizila kumunca ukuphazamiseka, noma uma abahlinzeki bekhetha ukuzithwala bona izindleko ezengeziwe.

Umonakalo obikiwe emkhunjini othwala i-LNG eKhor Fakkan ungeza enye ingcindezi. Akucaci ukuthi ubani onesibopho, kodwa izigameko eziphindaphindwayo zingenza umthamo wokuthutha nezikhathi zokulethwa kungathembeki kakhudlwana kubangenisa i-LNG abasebenzisa imizila yaseGulf.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

• Abaqhubi bemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela: Babhekene ngokushesha nobungozi bezokuphepha, bokulibaziseka nobokushintsha umzila eHormuz.
• Abasebenzi base-US esizindeni saseJordani: Babhekene ngqo nengxabano esikhulile, nakuba umbiko waseJordani wokuvimba imicibisholo kanye nesitatimende se-US sithi bonke abasebenzi babaliwe.
• Amabhizinisi ancike kuwoyela olethiwe: Asengozini yokwenyuka kwezindleko zikaphethiloli nezinto azidingayo phakathi namasonto uma ukulibaziseka kwemikhumbi kuqhubeka futhi izindleko zidlula ngezinkontileka zokuhlinzeka noma amanani emakethe esheshayo.
• Abangenisa i-LNG abasebenzisa imizila yokuthutha yaseGulf: Babhekene nomthamo wokuthutha nezikhathi zokufika ezingabikezeleki kakhudlwana uma ukulimala kwemikhumbi kuba yinto ejwayelekile.

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu

Uma ezinye izigameko zihlala zilinganiselwe kodwa ukukhathazeka ngokuthunyelwa ngemikhumbi kuqhubeka, abaqhubi bangaqhubeka nokudlula ngokuqapha eHormuz emasontweni ambalwa alandelayo. Lokho kungagcina izindleko zokuphepha nezokusebenza ziphezulu futhi kugcine i-Brent iseduze noma ingaphezu kwezinga layo elibikiwe, ngaphandle kokudala ukumiswa okude kokulethwa kwempahla uqobo. Lesi yisimo esiyisisekelo ngoba sekuvele kwabikwa ukuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela futhi i-Brent isondela ku-$100.

Lokhu kungaqiniswa ukuqhubeka kokuhamba okulinganiselwe kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kanye nezinye izigameko ngaphandle kokuvalwa okuqinisekisiwe kwesikhathi eside. Kungaba buthaka uma ukudlula kubuyela kwesijwayelekile futhi i-Brent yehla.

Okuhle kakhulu

Uma ukuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi yezohwebo kuma futhi imingcele ebonakalayo yokudlula iyaxegiswa, abaqhubi bemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela bangabuyisela amashejuli ajwayelekile kakhudlwana emavikini kuya ezinyangeni. Ukuphambuka nokulibaziseka okumbalwa kunganciphisa isidingo sokuba abathengi baqongelele impahla njengendlela yokuqapha futhi kuthuthukise ukuhlela ukuthenga.

Le ndlela ingasekelwa ukuqala kabusha kokuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela, ukungabi khona komunye umonakalo emikhunjini kanye nokwehla kwamanani kawoyela. Ukuhlasela okusha noma imingcele emisha kungayiphazamisa.

Okubi kakhulu

Uma ukuhlasela kusabalalela kweminye imikhumbi ethwala uwoyela, imikhumbi ethwala i-LNG noma izimpahla zamandla zesifunda, abaqhubi bangabambezela noma bagweme ukudlula eHormuz isikhathi eside. Abathengi bangabe sebeqhudelana ngemithwalo ehlukile, kuyilapho amabhizinisi adinga amandla amaningi elawula izindleko zikaphethiloli eziphakeme nezingabikezeleki kakhudlwana phakathi namasonto kuya ezinyangeni eziyi-6–12.

Ukuhlaselwa okuphindaphindiwe kwemikhumbi yezohwebo, ubufakazi obandayo bokuphazamiseka kokuhamba kanye namanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ahlala ephakeme kungakhomba kulo mphumela. Ukungabikho okuqhubekayo kwezigameko nokubuyela kwamazinga okuhamba ajwayelekile kungaphikisa lokhu.

Okufanele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

• Ukuthi ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kukhombisa yini ukuqhubeka kokulibaziseka, ukuphambuka noma amandla okubuyela ekudluleni okuvamile eHormuz.
• Ukuthi eminye imikhumbi yezohwebo noma izimpahla zamandla iyahlaselwa noma iyalimala yini.
• Ukuthi i-Brent ihlala yini iphakeme kanye nokuphazamiseka kokuthunyelwa ngemikhumbi, noma iyehla njengoba ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kubuyela kwesijwayelekile.