Israel Election Deadlock Leaves Four Possible Paths to Government

What changed

Israel’s election has produced no clear governing majority, with 85% of votes counted after Tuesday’s vote. Neither Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition nor Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc is projected to govern alone, while Arab parties could win about 19 seats after unusually high turnout.

That leaves four possible paths: a Netanyahu-led unity government, an Eisenkot coalition backed by Arab parties, a broader Netanyahu majority involving right-wing opposition lawmakers, or another election.

Why it matters

The numbers turn Israel’s Arab parties into potential kingmakers. The United Arab list, projected to win about seven seats, says it would join an opposition government. The Joint List, projected at about 12 seats, says it would support one from outside.

That is politically consequential because Eisenkot and nearly every Jewish party in his bloc have ruled out coalition cooperation with Arab parties. The only Jewish leader openly advocating that route is Yair Golan of The Democrats. A government built this way would also be especially fragile over Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

Netanyahu faces a different choice. He could try to bring Eisenkot’s Yashar Party into a national unity government, but that would require Eisenkot to abandon his campaign promise to remove Netanyahu. Netanyahu could also seek right-wing lawmakers from Eisenkot’s bloc while preserving his existing alliance, though his call for a “strong right-wing government” suggests that his current partners remain central to his plans.

The most likely outcome, based on these conflicting commitments, may be another election. That is not certain: the final seat distribution is still unknown, and the parties could yet reverse positions. But the arithmetic has made compromise unavoidable, while the public promises have made it politically expensive.