Abalwanyi b’e Yemen ne Iraq abawagirwa Iran begasse okukanga ekitundu ky’Ekikukujju

Kiki ekikyuse

Okusinziira ku mawulire ga AP News, abakungu mu kitundu bagamba nti abayeekera ba Houthi ab’e Yemen baayamba ebibinja by’abalwanyi b’e Iraq ebiwagirwa Iran okutegeka n’okukola obulumbaganyi ku bifo by’amafuta ebya Saudi Arabia mu Jjulaayi. Obulumbaganyi obwo bwamala ennaku bbiri nga bakozesa ennyonyi nnyingi ezitaliimu bagoba ezajja awamu.

Oluvannyuma, Saudi Arabia ne Amerika byakuba bbomu ku bibinja by’abalwanyi b’e Iraq. Amagye ga Popular Mobilization Forces geegaana okwenyigira mu bulumbaganyi obwo, ate aba Houthi tebaayanukula AP.

Amawulire ago era gagamba nti aba Houthi baalangirira okuziyiza ebyombo bya Saudi Arabia okuyita mu Nnyanja Emmyufu. Okusinziira ku ACLED, okuva ku nkomerero ya Jjulaayi baalumba ebifo by’amafuta n’ebyombo ebitwala amafuta ebya Saudi Arabia emirundi egisukka mu kkumi n’ebiri. Ab’obuyinza mu Saudi Arabia baagamba nti obulumbaganyi obw’Olwokubiri bwalumya abantu abasukka mu 70.

Lwaki kino kikulu

Ekizibu kino kibadde kya bukuumi mu kitundu, naye kati kituuka ne ku kwesiga nti amafuta ganaatuusibwa nga bwe kyategekeddwa. Amafuta gayinza okusigala mu ttaka, kyokka ne kiba kizibu okutegeka ddi lwe ganaatwalibwa, okugafunira yinsuwa, okugatikka oba okugasaabaza.

Enkolagana eyogeddwako mu kutegeka obulumbaganyi wakati w’abalwanyi b’e Iraq n’aba Houthi etegeeza nti abaddukanya emirimu gy’amafuta mu Saudi Arabia bayinza okwetaaga okukuuma ebifo bingi omulundi gumu: ebifo ebiri ku lukalu, ebyombo by’amafuta ebiri ku nnyanja, n’amakubo agabigatta. Abasooka okwolekera ekizibu kino be baddukanya emirimu gy’amasannyalaze n’amafuta mu Saudi Arabia, n’amakampuni agasaabaza ebyamaguzi mu Nnyanja Emmyufu.

Kigambibwa nti Saudi Arabia etambuza ebyombo by’amafuta nga eggyeeko obubonero obulondoola gye biri. Kino kiyinza okukendeeza ku mawulire agafunibwa abo abakolagana nayo nga bategeka okutambuza emigugu gy’amafuta.

Singa obulumbaganyi bwonoona ebifo oba ebyuma mu ngeri ey’amaanyi, oba ne butaataaganya emirimu enfunda eziwera, abaguzi bayinza okusigaza obudde butono obw’okufuniramu amafuta era ne kibazibuwalira okumanya ddi lwe ganaatuuka. Okuddaabiriza amangu, okukozesa amafuta agali mu materekero, okugaggya mu nnimiro endala, n’okugasaabaza mu makubo amalala agasoboka, biyinza okukendeeza ku kizibu ekyo.

Mu ndowooza yaffe eyesigamye ku bimanyiddwa, naye nga ya kuteebereza, ekisinga okusoboka mu wiiki eziddako kwe kwongera obukuumi n’okwanguya emirimu gy’okuzzaawo ebyonooneddwa. Abaguzi bajja kuba batunuulira oba emigugu gy’amafuta gikyatambuzibwa mu budde obwategekebwa.

Ekibuuzo ekikulu kisukka ku kuba nti obulumbaganyi obulala bunaabaawo. Kiri ku oba obulumbaganyi bunaakyusa emirimu gy’okutikka n’okutuusa amafuta okumala ebbanga eggwanidde okuleetera abaguzi okunoonya emigugu emirala egy’okugadda mu bigere.

Ekyaliwo edda ekifaananako n’kino

Ekyaliwo ekisinga okuyamba okutegeera embeera eno bwe bulumbaganyi obwakolebwa nga 14 Ssebutemba 2019 ku kifo ekirongoosa amafuta ekya Abqaiq n’ennimiro y’amafuta eya Khurais mu Saudi Arabia. AP bw’ennyonnyola ebyaliwo, aba Houthi beeyita abaakola obulumbaganyi obwo, kyokka nga waliwo n’okwekenneenya okulala okwabunenya Iran.

Okufaanagana kw’ebintu bino kulabika bulungi. Abali ku ludda lwa Iran baakozesa obulumbaganyi obuva mu bbanga obusala ensalo okukosa ebifo n’ebyuma bya Saudi Arabia ebikola ku maanyi. Waliwo obutakkaanya ku kibinja ekyakola obulumbaganyi ku lw’omuwagizi waakyo, era ebyavaamu byatuuka wala okusukka ekifo ekyalumbibwa.

Naye enjawulo wakati w’ebintu bino nayo nkulu. Amawulire agaliwo kati googera ku nkolagana egambibwa okubaawo wakati w’aba Houthi n’abalwanyi b’e Iraq, nga bwe wataataaganyizibwa n’entambula mu Nnyanja Emmyufu. Mu 2019, tekyakakasibwa nti ebibinja ebyo byali bitegekera wamu emirimu gy’obulumbaganyi. Ate obulumbaganyi obwo bwakuba ebifo omwali emirimu mingi egy’okulongoosa amafuta nga gikuŋŋaanidde wamu mu ngeri etera obutabaawo.

Oluvannyuma lw’obulumbaganyi bwa 2019, amafuta Saudi Arabia ge yali efulumya gaakendeera ekitundu okumala akaseera. Naye EIA yategeeza nti emiwendo gyali gizze ku gyaliwo nga obulumbaganyi tebunnabaawo omwezi we gwaggweerako, ng’okufulumya amafuta kuzziddwaawo mu wiiki ntono.

Ekyo kiraga ekikulu kati: obusobozi bw’okuddaabiriza, amafuta agali mu materekero, n’okuzzaawo okutikka ebyombo bisobola okukomya ku buzibu obuva mu bulumbaganyi. Kyokka obulumbaganyi obubuna ebifo by’amafuta n’ebyombo ebyagatwala buyinza okukaluubiriza okuzza emirimu mu mbeera eya bulijjo.

Engeri obuzibu gye buyinza okubuna

Obuzibu busookera mu mirimu. Obulumbaganyi obwonoona ebifo oba obulemesa ebyombo by’amafuta okutambula buyinza okuwaliriza okuddaabiriza, okukyusa ebiseera by’okutikka, okukozesa amakubo amalala n’okuggya amafuta mu materekero.

Oluvannyuma obuzibu butuuka ku baguzi b’amafuta. Singa obusobozi bw’okufulumya amafuta busigala bukendedde, oba okutikka ne kweyongera okutaataaganyizibwa, kiyinza okuba ekizibu okumanya ddi amafuta lwe ganaatuuka. Abaguzi bayinza okutandika okunoonya emigugu emirala egy’okugadda mu bigere.

Obuzibu obwo bukendeera singa abaddukanya emirimu mu Saudi Arabia bazzaawo okufulumya amafuta amangu, ne bakozesa agali mu materekero oba ennimiro endala, era ne basigazaawo ebifo ebirala eby’okutikkiramu oba amakubo amalala ag’okugatambuza.

Ani ayinza okukosebwa, era atya

• Abaddukanya emirimu gy’amasannyalaze n’amafuta mu Saudi Arabia: boolekedde obuzibu kati. Obulumbaganyi obuddiŋŋana buyinza okubalazimya okwongera obukuumi, okuddaabiriza n’okukyusa enzirukanya y’emirimu. Obunene bw’ekizibu businziira ku kwonooneka okukakasiddwa n’oba obulumbaganyi bweyongera.
• Abasaabaza ebyamaguzi mu Nnyanja Emmyufu: bayinza okukosebwa mu ngeri ez’enjawulo mu nnaku eziddako. Okutiisatiisa okuziyiza ebyombo n’okulumba ebyombo by’amafuta byongera akabi mu ntambula. Ebyombo by’amafuta okutambula nga obubonero obubirondoola buggiddwako kiyinza okwongera okukaluubiriza amakampuni okumanya entambula y’ebyamaguzi n’okusalawo amakubo ag’okukozesa.
• Abaguzi b’amafuta ga Saudi Arabia: boolekedde obuzibu mu wiiki eziddako. Okutaataaganyizibwa kw’okufulumya amafuta, okugatikka oba okugasaabaza singa kweyongera, kuyinza okukendeeza ku budde obuliwo obw’okugatuusa. Okuzzaawo emirimu amangu n’okutegeka engeri endala ey’okufunamu amafuta byandikendeezezza ku buzibu obwo.
• Ab’obuyinza mu Iraq: obusobozi bwabwe buyinza okunafuwa mu wiiki eziddako. Iraq yalagidde ebibinja by’abalwanyi okuwaayo ebyokulwanyisa byabyo ng’omwezi tegunnaggwaako. Naye enkolagana eyogeddwako esala ensalo, n’ebibinja okugaana okuwaayo ebyokulwanyisa, biyinza okukaluubiriza okussa ekiragiro kino mu nkola.

Ebiyinza okubaawo

Ekisinga okusoboka: Singa ebyonooneddwa biba bitono oba nga bisobola okuddaabirizibwa, abaddukanya emirimu mu Saudi Arabia bongera obukuumi, bazzaawo obusobozi obwakosebwa, era ne beeyongera okutunda amafuta ebweru nga bakozesa agali mu materekero, ennimiro endala oba okutikka ebyombo okuzzeemu okukolebwa. Mu wiiki eziddako, okutaataaganyizibwa kusigala nga kusaasaanya ssente nnyingi era nga kukosa emirimu nnyo, awatali kufuuka bbula ly’amafuta agatuusibwa erimala ebbanga. Kino kyeyongera okusoboka singa okufulumya amafuta tekuyimirira okumala ebbanga, era okutikka ebyombo ne kweyongera oba ne kuzzibwawo.

Embeera esinga obulungi: Singa obulumbaganyi obulala tebwonoona nnyo, era ne wabaawo obukakafu obwesigika nti emirimu gy’okuzzaawo ebyakosebwa gisobozesa amafuta okugenda ebweru okweyongera okutambuzibwa, ebifo ebyakosebwa n’emirimu gy’ebyombo by’amafuta biyinza okudda mu mbeera eya bulijjo mu wiiki oba emyezi. Abaguzi bandibadde n’ensonga ntono ez’okunoonya emigugu emirala, era ebikolebwa mu by’obukuumi byandisobodde okukomya ku kutaataaganyizibwa nga tekunnakyusa ngeri amafuta gye gatuusibwamu okumala ebbanga eddene. Okuddaabiriza amangu, okutuusa amafuta obutakyukakyuka, n’obutabaawo bulumbaganyi bulala bukakasiddwa byandiwagidde embeera eno.

Embeera esinga obubi: Singa obulumbaganyi obulala bwonoona nnyo obusobozi bw’okufulumya amafuta oba ne butaataaganya entambula y’ebyombo enfunda eziwera, abatunda amafuta ga Saudi Arabia ebweru bayinza okumala ebbanga nga emirimu gibakaluubiridde. Abaguzi bayinza okunoonya emigugu gy’amafuta egiva awalala mu bbanga eriva ku wiiki ezimu okutuuka ku myezi 12. Okukyusa amakubo buli kiseera, okutikka okulwawo n’okutaataaganyizibwa kw’okutuusa amafuta byandifudde embeera eno ekizibu ky’obusuubuzi awamu n’eky’obukuumi. Kino kyeyongera okusoboka singa obujulizi bw’aba Houthi n’abalwanyi b’e Iraq okukolera awamu bweyongera, ate okuzzaawo emirimu oba okukozesa amafuta agali mu materekero ne biremererwa okusasulira ekibulawo.

Eby’okugoberera ebiddako

• Mu nnaku eziddako, ebyo ab’obuyinza mu Saudi Arabia oba abaddukanya emirimu gy’amasannyalaze n’amafuta bye banaategeeza ku kwonooneka kw’ebifo, okukendeera kw’amafuta agafulumizibwa, okuddaabiriza n’obusobozi obuzzeewo.
• Enkyukakyuka mu kutikka ebyombo by’amafuta n’entambula mu Nnyanja Emmyufu, omuli okukyusa amakubo okumala ebbanga, okulwawo oba okwongera okutambula nga obubonero obulondoola ebyombo buggiddwako.
• Obubaka okuva mu bakungu b’ekitundu, aba Amerika oba ab’amagye ga Popular Mobilization Forces obukakasa oba obuwakanya ekigambibwa nti aba Houthi n’abalwanyi b’e Iraq baategekera wamu obulumbaganyi.
• Oba ab’obuyinza mu Iraq banaassa mu nkola ekiragiro kyabwe eky’ebibinja by’abalwanyi okuwaayo ebyokulwanyisa ng’omwezi tegunnaggwaako, oba ebibinja ebyo binaasigala nga bikigaana.