Elena Rybakina Reaches US Open Semifinals, Secures WTA No. 1

What changed

Based on AP Sports reporting, Elena Rybakina beat Zheng Qinwen 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 to reach her first U.S. Open semifinal. That result guarantees the 27-year-old Australian Open champion from Kazakhstan becomes WTA No. 1 on Monday, ending Aryna Sabalenka’s 99-week run at the top regardless of the tournament’s remaining results.

Why This Matters

The ranking race is over before the trophy is handed over. Rybakina has secured the sport’s biggest weekly label, but still has Thursday’s semifinal and potentially a final to win. That makes the next match unusually clean: the No. 1 status is settled; the U.S. Open title is not.

Zheng’s loss carries a different kind of win. After elbow surgery left her at No. 121, her run from qualifying guarantees a return to the top 60. In a sport where a draw can dictate the difficulty of a fortnight, that is a meaningful route back toward better opportunities.

Impact assessment

Rybakina gains immediate competitive standing when Monday’s rankings arrive, while Sabalenka loses the top position even if she wins her remaining matches. The title race remains separate, so neither player’s ranking outcome settles who leaves New York with the trophy.

Zheng’s rise changes her position after a difficult route back from surgery. If that top-60 return holds in Monday’s list, she will carry a markedly improved ranking into what comes next.

For Gauff or Andreeva, whoever emerges as Rybakina’s opponent faces a player with the ranking milestone already banked but the tournament goal still pressing. That may sharpen the semifinal into a contest between settled status and unfinished business.

Scenarios

Most likely: Our outlook (informed speculation): when the WTA releases its rankings Monday, Rybakina takes No. 1 while the U.S. Open champion is decided separately. This is the baseline because her semifinal place has already secured the ranking change. The key signals are Rybakina completing her semifinal and the Monday list placing her above Sabalenka.

Upside: If Rybakina beats Gauff or Andreeva on Thursday, then wins again in the final, she turns a guaranteed rankings breakthrough into the tournament title she says is her goal. That would unite the new No. 1 position with the immediate prize rather than leaving them as two separate achievements.

Downside: If Rybakina loses her semifinal, she still becomes No. 1 Monday, but another player takes the final-place and title opportunity from her half of the draw. The ranking change would stand; the sporting momentum of the fortnight would shift elsewhere.

What to watch next

• Thursday: whether Coco Gauff or Mirra Andreeva becomes Rybakina’s semifinal opponent, and who wins that match.
• Monday: the WTA rankings, where Rybakina is expected to be No. 1 and Sabalenka below her.
• Monday: Zheng’s revised ranking, with AP reporting she is guaranteed to be inside the top 60.