What changed
The UK has stopped processing new cases under its “one in, one out” agreement with France, which returned some Channel migrants to France in exchange for admitting an equal number of people with legitimate routes to Britain. About 1,500 people were removed during the pilot, which began just over a year ago, but removal flights will continue for the next few weeks.
Why it matters
The deal was meant to offer a controlled answer to small-boat crossings. Instead, its scale proved too limited to meet the government’s ambitions. The Home Office now says it will use lessons from the pilot to speed up removals of people who have no right to remain, while France and the UK discuss how the agreement will end.
That leaves the policy in an awkward middle ground: the exchange has stopped, but the removals have not. The government has not set out the scale, timing or legal basis of whatever comes next, and there is no evidence yet that ending the pilot will reduce crossings.
The pressure remains substantial. Between 1 January and 27 September 2026, 19,135 people crossed the Channel in small boats, although that was 42% fewer than during the same period a year earlier. Small-boat arrivals accounted for 40% of asylum applications from July 2025 to June 2026, and boats carried an average of 67 people in the year to 27 September.
The next test is whether the government can turn a small, difficult pilot into a removal system operating at a scale that changes the numbers. Until that is clear, the policy has changed name and machinery more than it has changed the underlying problem.
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