What changed
The World Meteorological Organization says 2026’s climate extremes are reaching unprecedented levels and may intensify into 2027 as a very strong El Niño strengthens. The first nine months of 2026 were 1.47°C above the preindustrial reference period, while sea levels, ocean temperatures and greenhouse-gas concentrations reached record highs.
Why it matters
This is not a forecast of one bad season. It is a warning that a natural El Niño cycle is adding heat to a planet already loaded with it. The result could be more heatwaves, tropical cyclones, floods, drought and fire through 2027.
The human cost is already visible. European heatwaves in 2026 are estimated to have killed more than 50,000 people, likely an undercount. A rock-ice avalanche on the Nepal-China border killed more than 1,300 people, while floods in Vietnam and weak monsoon rainfall in India damaged food production, livelihoods and incomes.
The timing gives the warning political weight. Leaders meeting at COP31 in Antalya are negotiating how quickly to move away from fossil fuels and how much support should reach countries facing the worst impacts. My reading is that the report narrows the room for treating climate policy as a distant bargaining exercise: the physical risks are arriving while the negotiations are still debating the bill.
Whether 2027 becomes the hottest year on record remains uncertain. But the direction is clear: a strengthening El Niño could make an already extreme baseline more dangerous, with the severity of losses depending on where heat, rain and drought strike.
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