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I-Ukraine ithi ihlasele izikhungo zegesi esifundeni saseRussia i-Yamal-Nenets

Amasosha akhethekile ase-Ukraine athe ahlasele izikhungo ezimbili zegesi yemvelo esifundeni saseRussia i-Yamal-Nenets, cishe amakhilomitha angu-3,000 ukusuka emngceleni waseRussia ne-Ukraine; i-Fire Point iveze ukuthi isikhali sihambe ibanga elingaphezu kwamakhilomitha angu-3,300 sayoshaya inhloso.

Kungani lokhu kubalulekile

Ukuhlaselwa okubikiwe kudinga ukuhlolwa komonakalo futhi kungaphoqa abaqhubi ukuba bahlole, balungise noma bavikele izikhungo ngaphambi kokuba kuqinisekiswe ukusebenza okujwayelekile.

Trends Today publication

Okushintshile

Amasosha akhethekile ase-Ukraine athe ahlasele izikhungo ezimbili zegesi yemvelo esifundeni saseRussia i-Yamal-Nenets: esisodwa e-Novyy Urengoy nesinye esifundeni sase-Purovsky, cishe amakhilomitha angu-3,000 ukusuka emngceleni. Lokhu kusekelwe embikweni we-The Guardian World, othi umbusi wesifunda ukuqinisekisile ukuhlaselwa futhi usahlola umonakalo; umenzi wezikhali wase-Ukraine, i-Fire Point, uveze ukuthi isikhali sihambe ibanga elingaphezu kwamakhilomitha angu-3,300.

Umphumela osheshayo, ngokwalokhu okushiwo, uwukuthi indawo yaseRussia okwakucatshangwa ukuthi iphephile ngenxa yokuba kude nempi isingenwe enkabeni yendawo yayo ephesheya yegesi. Umbiko uthi lesi sifunda sikhipha cishe u-80% wegesi yaseRussia. Umonakalo, ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza kanye nohlobo lwesikhali olusetshenzisiwe akukaqinisekiswa.

Kungani lokhu kubalulekile

Lokhu kudlula indaba yokuqhuma okukodwa: kubonisa ukuthi izindawo ebezibonakala zikude nempi sezisondelene nayo. Isikhungo segesi esikude eSiberia asisona nje ingxenye yezimboni; siyisigaba sohlelo oluguqula ingcebo enkulu yemithombo ibe amandla omnotho nokukwazi kwezwe ukumelana nezingcindezi zamasu.

Uma leli banga elibikiwe lingaphindwa, iRussia izobhekana nesinqumo esibizayo. Ingahlakaza ukuvikelwa, amandla okulungisa nokunaka kokuhlela phakathi kwempahla yamandla esezindaweni ezikude, noma yamukele ubungozi obukhulu ezindaweni ebezibhekwa njengezikude kakhulu nempi. Khonamanjalo, i-Ukraine isidale ingcindezi ngaphandle kokudinga ukubamba indawo ezungeze lezi zikhungo.

Imiphumela ingasabalala kanjani

Uma ukuhlola kuthola umonakalo obalulekile emishinini yokucubungula noma ezinhlelweni zokuthutha ezihlobene nayo, abaqhubi banganciphisa noma baqondise kabusha ukusebenza ngesikhathi kulungiswa futhi kuthathwa izinyathelo ezengeziwe zokuphepha.

Lokho kungase kuthinte abasebenzisi bezimboni nabasezindlini abaxhumene nokukhiqizwa kwalesi sifunda, kodwa kuphela uma umthamo olahlekile ungeke uvalwe ukukhiqizwa okunye kwaseRussia, izindawo zokugcina noma eminye imizila. Ukulungisa ngokushesha, umthamo osele noma ukugeleza ngezinye izindlela kungalunqamula lolo chungechunge ngaphambi kokuba luphenduke inkinga enkulu yokuphakelwa.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

  • Abaqhubi bezikhungo zegesi zase-Yamal-Nenets: basengcupheni ezinsukwini ezizayo: Ukuhlaselwa okuqinisekisiwe nokuhlolwa komonakalo kungaphoqa ukuhlolwa, ukulungisa nokuqiniswa kwezokuphepha ngisho nangaphambi kokuba kuqinisekiswe ukuphazamiseka kokukhiqiza.
  • Abahleli bezokuphepha kwamandla eRussia: basengcupheni emasontweni ezayo: Uma ikhono lokuhlasela elibikiwe liqinisekiswa, ukuvikela ingqalasizinda ekude enyakatho kungadinga ukunakwa nezinsiza ezengeziwe.
  • Abahleli bokuhlasela okujulile base-Ukraine: isimo asicacile emasontweni ezayo: Ibanga elibikiwe linganweba uhla lwezinhloso, kodwa ukubaluleka kwalo kuncike emonakalweni oqinisekisiwe, ekutheni lingaphindwa yini nasempendulweni yaseRussia.
  • Abasebenzisi abaxhumene nokukhiqizwa kwegesi okuthintekile: bangase babe sengcupheni emasontweni ezayo, kuye ngezimo: Ukwethembeka kokuphakelwa kungancipha kuphela uma ukucubungula kuphazamiseka kakhulu futhi ezinye izindlela zingakwazi ukuvala isikhala.

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu

Umbono wethu, osekelwe ekuqageleni okunolwazi: Emasontweni azayo, abaqhubi neziphathimandla zesifunda bazoqedela ukuhlola, balungise lapho kudingeka khona futhi baqinise ukuvikelwa ezindaweni okubikwe ukuthi zihlaselwe. Ukuphakelwa kwegesi kabanzi kuzohlala kungashintshi ngaphandle kokuba umonakalo utholakale uphazamise umthamo obalulekile wokucubungula. Lokhu kuyisisekelo ngoba ukuhlaselwa nokuhlolwa kuqinisekisiwe embikweni, kodwa ukuphazamiseka kokusebenza akukaqinisekiswa.

Lokhu kubonakala kunamandla uma iziphathimandla zibika umonakalo olinganiselwe noma ukubuyiselwa okusheshayo, kungaveli ukuncishiswa okuqhubekayo kokusebenza, futhi kwanda umsebenzi wezokuphepha noma wokulungisa. Kuncipha amathuba ako uma kudalulwa umonakalo omkhulu ekucubunguleni noma ukuvalwa okuhlala isikhathi eside.

Isimo esingaholela ekukhuleni komthelela

Uma ukuhlaselwa kuphazamise izimpahla ezibalulekile zokucubungula igesi futhi i-Ukraine iphinda ukuhlasela okufanayo okude, iRussia ingase iqondise izinsiza eziningi zokuvikela nokulungisa engqalasizindeni yamandla ekude ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo. Lokhu kungasho ukuthi abahleli baseRussia babhekana nomsebenzi wokuvikela obiza kakhulu futhi osakazeke ezindaweni eziningi.

Lesi simo siba namandla uma kufinyelelwa kwezinye izinhloso zamandla ezikude futhi abaqhubi bebika izithiyo eziphindaphindayo. Amathuba aso ayancipha uma umonakalo utholakala usezingxenyeni ezingabalulekile futhi ukusebenza kubuyela esimweni esijwayelekile ngokushesha.

Isimo esingaholela ekwehleni kokuphakelwa

Uma umonakalo umkhulu, ukulungisa kudonsa isikhathi futhi umthamo wokuthatha indawo ungeke uvale ukulahleka, abaqhubi banganciphisa ukucubungula ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo. Abasebenzisi bezimboni nabasezindlini abaxhumene nalokhu bangase babhekane nokwethembeka okuphansi kokuphakelwa, kuyilapho iziphathimandla zaseRussia zibeka phambili ukubuyisela ukusebenza nokuqinisa ukuvikelwa kunokusebenza okujwayelekile.

Lesi simo siba nokwenzeka kakhulu uma kuvela ukuphazamiseka okuhlala isikhathi eside, ukuncipha kokucubungula noma imingcele eqhubekayo yokulungisa. Amathuba aso ayancipha uma izikhungo zibuyela ekusebenzeni okujwayelekile ngaphandle kokubikwa kokuncishiswa.

Okufanele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

  • Ukuhlolwa komonakalo kuzo zombili izikhungo zase-Yamal-Nenets: umonakalo onomthelela ekusebenzeni noma ukulungisa okuqhubekayo kungashintsha indaba; ukubuyela ngokushesha ekusebenzeni okujwayelekile kungawunciphisa umthelela.
  • Izaziso ezivela kubaqhubi mayelana nokucubungula, ukulungisa, ukuqondisa kabusha noma ukuncipha komthamo odluliswa esifundeni esithintekile.
  • Ukuthi i-Ukraine iyabika yini okunye ukuhlasela engqalasizindeni yamandla yaseRussia ekude ngokufanayo, kunolwazi olusemthethweni oluqinisekisayo.
Sources (1)
  1. The Guardian WorldUkraine war briefing: Arctic attack extends Kyiv’s strike reach into Russian gas heartland

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