South Africa’s Record Grain Harvest Keeps Food Inflation Near Historic Lows

What changed

South Africa’s strong 2025/26 harvest is keeping food inflation unusually low. Food inflation rose only from 0.6% in July to 0.7% in August 2026, its lowest range since 2010, while summer grains and oilseeds production is forecast at a record 21.6 million tonnes, 5% above the previous season.

Grain, fruit and vegetable prices are falling. First-half agricultural exports reached $7.8 billion, up 11% year on year, despite inefficiencies at the Port of Cape Town that pushed some produce volumes toward the Eastern Cape.

Why it matters

Cheap staples are masking how sharply food prices might otherwise be pressing household budgets. Large grain stocks are keeping cereal prices down, while favourable fruit and vegetable production is adding to the relief. Meat inflation has also eased, although foot-and-mouth disease continues to weigh on cattle producers and has put upward pressure on red meat prices.

The harvest is therefore doing two jobs at once: lowering prices for consumers and supporting export volumes for farmers. But the gains are uneven. Cape Town’s port problems reduced profitability and risked leaving produce in worse condition before reaching buyers. Livestock producers are still dealing with disease, even as vaccination makes progress.

The calm may not last. Food inflation could rise in 2027 if the expected El Niño drought begins to affect prices and base effects make year-on-year comparisons less favourable. For now, South Africa’s abundant harvest is giving consumers breathing room, but it has not removed the vulnerabilities in the country’s farms, ports or livestock industry.