What changed
China’s manufacturing PMI rose 0.3 points to 50.1% in September, returning to expansion after two months below 50%. Production accelerated to 51.7%, while new orders held at 50.5% and new export orders reached 50.0%.
Why it matters
The rebound is broad enough to show a real improvement in factory activity, but not strong enough to call a surge. Output rose faster than orders, yet finished-goods inventories fell to 47.6%, suggesting products were moving out rather than piling up.
The pressure point is cost. Input prices climbed to 60.8%, while output prices rose to 54%. That gap matters: manufacturers may be selling more, but some are still absorbing higher raw-material costs rather than passing them fully to buyers.
Large firms remained just above expansion at 50.6%. Medium-sized firms improved to 49.7%, and small firms rose to 48.9%, though both remained below 50%. The improvement is therefore uneven, with larger companies in firmer territory and smaller ones still waiting for a fuller recovery.
The near-term outlook is cautiously positive. Policy support, seasonal demand and year-end production could keep activity expanding, but the improvement may fade if those supports weaken or input costs continue rising. Expectations for production remained stable at 53.8%, while the third-quarter PMI average was 49.7%, a reminder that September’s return above 50% is an encouraging turn, not yet a settled trend.
Comments
No comments yet.