I-Brent Crude Isisondela Ku-$100 Njengoba Ukushuba Kwesimo EMpumalanga Ephakathi Kwandisa Ukwesaba Ukukhuphuka Kwamanani

Okushintshile

Ngokombiko we-France 24, i-Brent crude ifinyelele ku-$99.67 ngoSepthemba 9, yasondela ku-$100, kanti i-West Texas Intermediate isondele ku-$95. I-Iran ithe ihlasele isizinda sase-US eJordani futhi izoqondisa imikhumbi ethwala uwoyela eduze kweKuwait neBahrain, ngesikhathi i-Strait of Hormuz isavaliwe futhi uwoyela waseSaudi uya ngokuya usebenzisa umzila waseBab al-Mandab.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Uwoyela osezingeni lika-$100 awusona nje isibalo esisesikrinini sokuhweba. Uma uhlala kulelo zinga, izindleko zingasuka emizileni yemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela ziye kubahlinzeki bakaphethiloli, bese zidlulela kwezokuthutha, ekulethweni kwempahla nasemisebenzini edinga amandla amaningi. Lokho kushiya isikhala esincane ezabelweni zemali zemizi futhi kucindezele inzuzo yamabhizinisi.

Kuphinde kwenze kube nzima inkinga entekenteke ebhekene namabhange amakhulu. I-European Central Bank bekulindeleke ukuthi inqume ngamanani enzalo ngoLwesine, kanti imininingwane yokukhuphuka kwamanani e-US elindelwe ngoLwesihlanu ingaba nomthelela ekutheni i-Federal Reserve iyawanyusa yini amanani enzalo ngesonto elizayo. Amanani aphezulu kagesi namafutha angenza kube nzima kakhulu ukwehlisa ukukhuphuka kwamanani, ngesikhathi izindleko zokuboleka sezivele zenza owazo umonakalo.

Indlela imiphumela engasabalala ngayo

Izindleko eziphezulu zokuthenga uwoyela ongahluziwe zingafinyelela emananini kaphethiloli ocolisisiwe nakwamanani okudayisa emasontweni azayo uma abahlinzeki bengakwazi ukuzimunca ngezinqolobane, izinkontileka noma eminye imizila. Izindleko zokuthutha nezokusebenza zingabe sezinyukela kubasebenzisi bakaphethiloli nasemabhizinisini adinga amandla amaningi, okungase kunciphise ukusetshenziswa kwemali noma kucindezele inzuzo.

Lolo chungechunge lungaphazamiseka uma usongo lwezokuphepha ludamba, uwoyela wehla, noma abahlinzeki nohulumeni bekhawulela ukudluliselwa kwezindleko.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

• Abaqhubi bemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela ekhonza iKuwait neBahrain: Bachayeke ngokushesha. Usongo olushiwo yi-Iran lungashintsha izinqumo ngemizila nangokuhamba kwemikhumbi.
• Abangenisa uwoyela nabahlinzeki bakaphethiloli: Isimo sabo sixubile ezinsukwini ezizayo. Ukuthenga kuba yingozi futhi kubize kakhulu, kodwa abahlinzeki abakwazi ukudlulisela izindleko kumakhasimende bangathola amandla okubeka amanani.
• Imizi esebenzisa uphethiloli namabhizinisi adinga amandla amaningi: Kungenzeka kuthinteke kabi emasontweni azayo uma amanani aphezulu kawoyela ongahluziwe ephenduka amanani aphezulu okudayisa nezindleko zokusebenza.
• Amabhange amakhulu: Achayeke ezinsukwini ezizayo. Ingcindezi entsha emanani kagesi namafutha ingenza izinqumo zokukhuphuka kwamanani zibe nzima kakhulu.

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu: Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okunolwazi): uma izinsongo ziqhubeka ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka okubanzi okuqinisekisiwe kokugeleza kukawoyela, uwoyela ongahluziwe ungahlala usezingeni eliphezulu izinsuku kuya emasontweni, futhi abahlinzeki bangase baqaphe kakhulu ngezindleko nemizila. Lena yindlela okungenzeka kakhulu ngoba umbiko uchaza ukwanda kwengozi, kodwa hhayi ukumiswa okusha okuqinisekisiwe nokubanzi kokuthunyelwa kukawoyela. Ukuhlala kwe-Brent eduze kuka-$99.67, izexwayiso zemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela nengcindezi yamandla ekuphawuleni ngokukhuphuka kwamanani kungakusekela lokhu; ukwehla okuthembekile kokushuba kwesimo noma ukwehla okukhulu kukawoyela ongahluziwe kungakwenza kube buthaka.

Okuhle: Uma ukufinyelela kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kugcinwa futhi ukushuba kwesimo kudamba, iphrimiyamu yengozi ekutholakaleni kukawoyela ingase inyamalale. Abahlinzeki bakaphethiloli bangase bagweme okunye ukukhuphula amanani, kwehlise ingcindezi ezinqumweni zamanani enzalo ezizwela ukukhuphuka kwamanani. Ukuhlaselwa okumbalwa kwemikhumbi nokwehla kwe-Brent kusuka ezingeni layo elisondele ku-$100 kungaqinisa lesi simo.

Okubi: Uma izinsongo ziphenduka ukuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo emanzini aqanjwe, abangenisa uwoyela bangase babhekane nezindleko eziphezulu zikawoyela ongahluziwe nezokuthutha, abahlinzeki bangase banyuse amanani kaphethiloli, futhi amabhizinisi angase anciphise ukusetshenziswa kwemali noma amukele inzuzo enciphayo. Ingcindezi iyaqina uma enye indlela yaseBab al-Mandab nayo iphazamiseka. Ukuncipha okuqinisekisiwe kokuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela, amanani aphezulu kaphethiloli ocolisisiwe kanye nokukhuphuka kwamanani okuhlobene namandla kungakhomba kule ndlela.

Okumele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

• Ukuthi i-Brent iyadlula yini ku-$100 futhi ihlale kulelo zinga ezikhathini ezilandelayo zokuhweba.
• Ukushintshwa kwemizila kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela okuqinisekisiwe, uhambo olumisiwe noma ukuhamba okuphazamisekile eduze kwe-Strait of Hormuz, iKuwait, iBahrain noma iBab al-Mandab.
• Imininingwane yangoLwesihlanu yamanani abathengi e-US nokuthi i-Federal Reserve iyakuhlobanisa yini ukuhlola kwayo ukukhuphuka kwamanani namanani kagesi namafutha.