Houthis Capture Mayun Island and Mokha Airport in Yemen

What changed

Yemen’s Houthi rebels captured Mayun island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and seized Mokha airport on Thursday, according to officials cited by the Associated Press. Mayun, also known as Perim, is a barren volcanic island about 3.5 kilometers off Yemen’s western coast and roughly 80 kilometers from the strait.

Saudi Arabia responded with reported airstrikes on Mokha airport. Damage and casualties were not immediately known, and Saudi Arabia had not commented. Iran called for an end to Saudi Arabia’s blockade of Yemen and a return to negotiations.

Why it matters

Bab el-Mandeb normally carries about 12% of the world’s goods and has become an important alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping through the route had already fallen about 60% since Houthi attacks began in late 2023.

Control of Mayun and Mokha gives the Houthis greater geographic leverage near the Red Sea corridor and could strengthen their position in negotiations involving Saudi Arabia, Yemen’s internationally recognized government and the United States. Saudi Arabia faces pressure to protect its export route while avoiding military escalation that could further threaten shipping.

How the effects could spread

Houthi control of positions near Bab el-Mandeb could raise perceived risks for tankers and commercial vessels. If insurers and carriers classify the route as more dangerous, they may increase premiums, add security measures, reroute selected voyages or reduce sailings.

Those responses would lengthen some journeys, consume more fuel and reduce effective shipping capacity. If tanker traffic falls, global oil importers could face higher delivered crude costs and greater price volatility. The chain could be interrupted by credible maritime protection, continued carrier service despite higher risks, or negotiations that reduce the threat of further attacks.

Impact assessment

The Houthis’ territorial gains may improve their bargaining position and give Iran more leverage through its support for the movement. Saudi Arabia’s access to Red Sea export routes is more exposed, while Yemen’s internationally recognized government may become more dependent on Saudi military and diplomatic backing.

Commercial shipping operators could face higher security costs, delays and pressure to divert if threats persist. Global energy consumers could ultimately bear higher transport and crude costs if tanker capacity through Bab el-Mandeb contracts. Iran could gain negotiating leverage, but a wider conflict could also increase diplomatic and economic pressure on Tehran.

Scenarios

Our outlook (informed speculation):

Most likely

If the Houthis retain Mayun and Mokha without causing a major casualty event or sustained damage to commercial vessels, carriers will adopt selective precautions and risk pricing will rise while traffic continues. Saudi Arabia will likely combine limited military responses with diplomatic pressure rather than immediately abandon Red Sea exports. Higher war-risk insurance and freight rates, selective rerouting and renewed negotiation efforts would support this path.

Upside

If Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis turn diplomatic contacts into enforceable restraint, attacks could ease and carriers could maintain or restore regular Bab el-Mandeb service. That would preserve Saudi access to the corridor and limit longer, more expensive voyages. This outcome depends on concrete de-escalation measures followed by a sustained absence of attacks.

Downside

If the Houthis continue threatening vessels and a serious incident occurs near Mayun or Mokha, major carriers and tankers could divert from Bab el-Mandeb. Longer routes, higher insurance costs and reduced shipping capacity would raise delivered energy and trade costs and increase pressure on Saudi Arabia to expand military operations. Large carrier suspensions, falling tanker transits and simultaneous increases in crude prices, freight rates and war-risk premiums would indicate this path.

What to watch next

• Carrier or tanker announcements about rerouting, suspension, escorts or new security measures.
• Changes in war-risk insurance, freight rates and tanker costs for Red Sea voyages.
• A concrete Saudi-Iranian negotiation or restraint arrangement involving Yemen.
• A verified commercial-vessel attack, damage incident or forced diversion near Bab el-Mandeb.