Trump Says Iran War May Keep Oil Prices High Until After Midterms

What changed

According to AP Sports’ report, President Donald Trump now says oil prices driven higher by the seven-month Iran war likely will not fall until after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Brent crude rose more than 3% above $100 a barrel, while U.S. gasoline reached $4.22 a gallon and diesel $5.94. Whether Iran relents after the election, or oil prices actually fall, remains uncertain.

Why This Matters

This is no longer just a war story. It is becoming a travel-and-cost story. If Gulf oil flows remain restricted through the Strait of Hormuz, airlines face higher jet-fuel bills and may cut flights or raise fares and fees. Diesel at a record level also makes shipping goods and running production more expensive.

That chain reaches ordinary decisions quickly: a more expensive flight, pricier deliveries and less money left after filling the car. The pressure could intensify before the election because the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve has already fallen below 300 million barrels, down more than 100 million since the start of 2026.

How the effects could spread

Oil shippers and refiners would face tighter supply if traffic through the strait stays sharply reduced. Airlines could then pass higher fuel costs to passengers or trim capacity where fares cannot cover the increase. Freight and production companies could push rising diesel costs into delivered prices, especially when they cannot renegotiate contracts quickly.

The chain could break if the conflict ends, shipping normalizes, strategic reserves offset the disruption or alternative supplies replace enough Gulf oil. Otherwise, higher fuel costs give Republican candidates another affordability problem to defend before the midterms.

Impact assessment

The immediate losers are airline passengers, households and freight-dependent manufacturers. Airlines have less room to absorb fuel costs when jet fuel is already forcing route cuts and higher charges. Manufacturers and shippers face pressure on margins before higher transport costs can be passed along.

Oil producers outside the Gulf could gain bargaining power if buyers seek replacement crude. The political exposure is clearest for Republicans trying to retain narrow congressional majorities: persistent gasoline inflation keeps the war attached to the household budget.

Scenarios

Most likely

Our outlook (informed speculation): If the war continues without normal Gulf shipping, energy costs remain elevated through Nov. 3 and into the following weeks. Airlines preserve higher fares, fees and selective flight cuts, while freight operators keep surcharges in place. Brent staying near or above $100, alongside rising or stubbornly high gasoline and diesel averages, would support this path.

Upside

If Iran stops attacking, the conflict ends sooner than Trump predicted and the Strait of Hormuz returns toward normal, crude and refined-product prices fall. Airlines could restore capacity or reduce fuel-related fees, while households and freight operators get relief. A sustained recovery in oil shipments would confirm this route.

Downside

If the war runs beyond the midterms and attacks further disrupt tankers or Saudi energy facilities, gasoline, diesel and jet-fuel costs rise again. Airlines cut more flights, freight operators raise charges and transport costs spread into consumer prices. This worsens if the strategic reserve falls further and alternative supplies cannot replace lost Gulf flows.

What to watch next

• Brent crude remaining above $100 for several trading sessions.
• Airlines announcing more flight cuts, fare increases or fees.
• Gasoline moving above $4.22 a gallon and diesel above $5.94.
• Oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz either recovering steadily or deteriorating further.