Brent Crude Rises Above $106 as Houthis Gain Bab el-Mandeb Leverage

What changed

According to France 24’s reporting, Iran-aligned Houthis gained leverage around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as Brent crude rose more than 5% to above $106 a barrel on September 10, 2026. UKMTO said four unknown projectiles hit two vessels four nautical miles west of Oman’s Khasab; one caught fire, while the second vessel’s status was unknown. The attackers’ identity and the full effect on shipping remain uncertain.

Why This Matters

A shipping-security story has crossed into the price of moving almost anything that depends on fuel and sea freight. If carriers add precautions, delay sailings or avoid exposed waters, voyage times, insurance costs and freight rates could rise. That would eventually reach manufacturers through more expensive delivered inputs, delayed shipments or costlier alternative suppliers.

The first signal is already visible in crude: Brent above $106 raises energy and transport costs if the move persists. Businesses that import fuel, components or finished goods would have less room to absorb those increases. Their practical choice would be familiar but unpleasant: pass costs to customers, draw down inventories or accept thinner margins.

How the effects could spread

Reported projectiles near Oman and increased Houthi leverage around Bab el-Mandeb could lead operators to:

• add security measures or delay departures;
• reroute vessels, lengthening journeys;
• pay more for insurance and freight;
• pass those costs to import-dependent manufacturers.

That chain only hardens if further incidents or official warnings occur, carriers materially change their procedures, and crude and freight risk premiums stay elevated. It could weaken quickly if vessels continue transiting normally and no further attacks are reported.

Impact assessment

Commercial shipping operators are the immediate losers. Vessel safety concerns can make schedules less reliable and reduce the efficiency of ships and crews.

Oil-importing manufacturers are exposed over the following weeks. Sustained crude prices above the reported level could compress margins unless higher costs can be passed through or alternative supplies secured.

Alternative-route providers could gain demand if operators avoid exposed waters. The benefit would be limited, however, if longer routes consume available capacity and add distance costs.

Scenarios

Most likely

Our outlook (informed speculation): Shipping operators introduce targeted precautions and some delays over the next days and weeks while Brent remains volatile. If further incidents or warnings occur without a sustained closure, carriers are likely to keep limited transit moving while charging more for the added risk.

This path weakens if there are no further incidents, schedules remain normal and Brent quickly retreats.

Upside

If no further vessel attacks occur and regional warnings are lifted, carriers could maintain normal routes. Freight and security costs would ease, allowing importers to avoid a broader logistics shock.

The improvement would be clearer when carriers report routine passage and Brent falls from the reported spike.

Downside

If attacks recur or another vessel fire is reported, more carriers and insurers could avoid exposed waters. Voyages would lengthen, freight and fuel costs would rise, and import-dependent manufacturers could delay shipments, draw on inventories or seek more expensive suppliers.

That path depends on repeated incidents, broad diversions and Brent remaining above the reported level alongside longer delivery times.

What to watch next

• A further UKMTO report of projectiles, damage or fire involving vessels near Oman or Bab el-Mandeb.
• Carrier announcements about route changes, delays, escorts or added security.
• Brent staying elevated at the same time as freight or insurance costs increase.