Elena Rybakina Beats Zheng to Reach US Open Semifinals, Clinch No. 1

What changed

Based on AP News reporting, Elena Rybakina beat Zheng Qinwen 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 to reach her first U.S. Open semifinal and guarantee the WTA No. 1 ranking when the new list is released Monday. The result ends Aryna Sabalenka’s 99-week stay atop the rankings; Rybakina next plays Coco Gauff or Mirra Andreeva, while Sabalenka faces Jessica Pegula.

Zheng’s run matters, too. After coming through qualifying following elbow surgery and arriving ranked No. 121, the 2024 Olympic gold medalist is guaranteed to return to the top 60.

Why This Matters

No. 1 is settled before the trophy is. That is the unusual part: Rybakina has already captured the sport’s biggest weekly status marker, but still has two matches left to turn it into a U.S. Open title.

For opponents, the change is practical, not ceremonial. If Rybakina sustains her results, future draws could put the new No. 1 at the centre of the bracket, altering who has to meet her and when. Zheng’s rebound could matter just as much lower down the ladder: a stronger ranking may eventually reduce her reliance on qualifying and change who gets direct paths into main draws. Tennis rankings are a moving floor, not a crown bolted to the wall.

Our outlook (informed speculation): Rybakina’s immediate prize is fixed, while the tournament’s larger question is whether she can make No. 1 feel like the start of a reign rather than a very well-timed Monday.

Impact assessment

• Elena Rybakina: winner, within days. Her semifinal berth puts her at No. 1 on Monday regardless of the remaining U.S. Open results.
• Aryna Sabalenka: loser, within days. Her 99-week run at No. 1 ends Monday; she cannot preserve it through the remaining matches.
• Zheng Qinwen: winner, within days. Her quarterfinal run guarantees a climb from No. 121 into the top 60 after surgery had pushed her ranking down.
• Future opponents: mixed, over the next year. If Rybakina maintains the ranking, seeding could reshape routes through tournaments. That effect depends on her continuing to earn results.

Scenarios

Most likely

If Monday’s rankings list Rybakina at No. 1 and Zheng inside the top 60, the immediate reshuffle arrives exactly as AP reports. Rybakina enters the semifinal with the ranking settled but the title unsettled; Zheng gains a more workable platform for later tournaments. The strongest signals are the WTA list Monday and Rybakina’s Thursday semifinal.

Upside

If Rybakina wins two more matches, she pairs the No. 1 ranking with her first U.S. Open title and strengthens her competitive position against the players still standing. If Zheng sustains her recovery through later results, she could move into main draws without qualifying, changing the workload required just to reach the tournament proper.

Downside

If Rybakina loses the semifinal or final, she still becomes No. 1 but the U.S. Open title goes elsewhere. Zheng’s top-60 return is guaranteed, but unless later runs follow, it does not itself restore her toward her former No. 4 standing.

What to watch next

• Thursday: Whether Rybakina beats Gauff or Andreeva to reach the final.
• Monday: Whether the WTA rankings formally install Rybakina at No. 1 and place Zheng inside the top 60.