UTrump uthi ukwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela ngenxa yempi yase-Iran kungaqhubeka kuze kudlule ukhetho lwaphakathi nonyaka

Okushintshile

Ngokombiko we-AP Business, uMongameli uDonald Trump uthe mancane amathuba okuthi amanani kawoyela ehle ngaphambi kokhetho lwaphakathi nonyaka lwangoNovemba 3, njengoba impi ye-U.S.-Israel ne-Iran ingena enyangeni yayo yesikhombisa. Uwoyela ongahluziwe i-Brent ukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-3% wadlula u-$100 ngomphongolo, uwoyela ongahluziwe wase-U.S. wama cishe ku-$96, kanti isilinganiso sikazwelonke sikaphethiloli ojwayelekile sikhuphuke ngamasenti angu-7 ngobusuku obubodwa safinyelela ku-$4.22 igalani ngalinye; udizili ufinyelele ku-$5.94.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Lokhu akuseyona nje igrafu yemakethe kawoyela enenombolo ethusayo. Kuyinkinga yezindleko esisabalele emabhizinisini: amaloli, izinqolobane, imigqa yokukhiqiza nezinhlelo zezindiza. Ukuphazamiseka e-Strait of Hormuz kubalulekile ngoba ukuthunyelwa okuvela eGulf kwehle kakhulu, kanti cishe u-20% kaphethiloli womhlaba wonke wawudlula lapho ngaphambi kwengxabano.

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okunolwazi): uma ukuphazamiseka kuqhubeka, ingcindezi elandelayo kungenzeka ibe sezabelomali zokusebenza. Izinkampani ezingeke zikwazi ukugwema ukuthutha okusebenzisa udizili omningi zingazama ukufaka izindleko emananini ezimpahla ezilethwayo, kanti izinkampani zezindiza zingavikela inzuzo yazo ngezihlalo ezimbalwa, amanani okugibela aphezulu nezimali ezengeziwe. Lokho kungashiya amakhasimende ekhokha kakhulu noma enezinketho ezimbalwa, ngezinye izikhathi kokubili.

Indlela Imiphumela Engasabalala Ngayo

Izindleko eziphezulu zikawoyela ongahluziwe zingakhuphula amanani kaphethiloli ezingeni labathengisi abakhulu, bese kukhuphuka amanani kaphethiloli nodizili ezitolo. Umbiko usuvele uyakubonisa lokhu ngokwenyuka kukaphethiloli ngamasenti angu-7 kanye nokwenyuka kukadizili.

Emabhizinisini ancike ekuthuthweni kwempahla, izindleko eziphezulu zikadizili zinganciphisa inzuzo noma zikhuthaze izimali ezengeziwe nokuncishiswa kokusebenza emasontweni azayo. Lokho kungadlulela nangaphandle komkhakha wezokuthutha ngamanani ezimpahla ezilethwa kumakhasimende. Lolu chungechunge lungadamba uma ukuhamba kwemikhumbi eHormuz kuthuthuka, uwoyela ongahluziwe wehla, noma ingcindezi yokuncintisana yenza abahlinzeki bathwale ingxenye enkulu yokwenyuka.

Ukuhamba ngendiza sekuvele kuyayizwa imiphumela yezindleko zikaphethiloli: izinkampani zezindiza zinciphise izindiza kuyilapho zenyusa amanani okugibela nezimali. Uma uphethiloli wezindiza uhlala ubiza, umthamo wokuhamba ungahlala ulinganiselwe, okwenza ukuhamba kubize kakhulu futhi kube nezinketho ezimbalwa.

Ukuhlolwa Komthelela

• Abashayeli bezimoto: Umthelela omubi osheshayo. Uphethiloli usuvele uku-$4.22 igalani ngalinye ngokwesilinganiso sikazwelonke esibikiwe.
• Amabhizinisi ancike ekuthuthweni kwempahla namakhasimende awo: Athinteka emasontweni azayo. Udizili osezingeni eliphezulu kunawo wonke ukhuphula izindleko zokuthutha nezokukhiqiza, okudala ingcindezi yokunciphisa izindleko noma yokwenyusa amanani ezimpahla ezilethwayo.
• Izinkampani zezindiza nabahambi: Kuxubile ezinkampanini zezindiza, kodwa kubi kubahambi. Ukuncishiswa kwezindiza nezimali eziphakeme kungasekela imali engenayo ohambweni ngalunye, kodwa kunciphisa isevisi etholakalayo futhi kwenyuse izindleko zohambo.
• Abaphathi bezinqolobane zikaphethiloli zamasu: Bathinteka esikhathini eside. Isiqiwi sehle ngaphansi kwemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-300 ekuqaleni kuka-Agasti ngemva kokukhishwa kwemiphongolo engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-100 kusukela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, sashiya inani elincane likaphethiloli esiqiwini phakathi nokuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo.

Izimo Ezingaba Khona

Okungenzeka kakhulu: Uma ukugeleza kukawoyela waseGulf kuhlala kuvinjelwe kakhulu phakathi nesikhathi sokhetho, izindleko zikaphethiloli zihlala ziphezulu amasonto amaningi kuze kufike uNovemba 3. Izinkampani zezindiza zingagcina izinhlelo zazo ezincishisiwe, kuyilapho abasebenzisi bakadizili befuna ukonga noma ukunyusa amanani. Lesi yisimo esiyisisekelo ngoba ukuphazamiseka sekuvele kuthinta uwoyela ongahluziwe, uphethiloli, udizili nomthamo wezindiza.

Okungcono: Uma ukuhamba kukawoyela e-Strait of Hormuz kuthuthuka futhi uwoyela ongahluziwe wehla, ingcindezi yamanani kaphethiloli ezitolo ingadamba emasontweni kuya ezinyangeni. Izinkampani zezindiza zingayeka ukunciphisa isevisi noma zibuyisele ezinye izindiza, kanti amabhizinisi ancike kakhulu kwezokuthutha angaba nesizathu esincane sokwenyusa amanani kumakhasimende.

Okubi kakhulu: Uma ukuhlaselwa kuqhubeka kuphazamisa imikhumbi ethwala uwoyela, imizila yemikhumbi noma izikhungo zikawoyela, izindleko zikaphethiloli zingaphinde zikhuphuke phakathi kwezinsuku noma izinyanga. Izinkampani zezindiza zinganciphisa kakhulu, kuyilapho amabhizinisi ahambisa izimpahla ngodizili engase abe nesikhuthazo esikhulu sokwengeza izimali ezihlobene nokuthutha.

Okufanele Kubhekwe Ngokulandelayo

• Ukuthi i-Brent ihlala yini iseduze noma ingaphezu kuka-$100, nokuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe wase-U.S. uhlala yini uphezulu.
• Izilinganiso zikazwelonke ze-AAA zikaphethiloli nodizili.
• Imibiko ngokuhamba kukawoyela e-Strait of Hormuz.
• Ukuncishiswa kwezindiza, ukwenyuswa kwamanani okugibela nezinguquko ezimalini zezindiza.