Uwoyela Wenquka Ngaphezu Kuka-$100 Umphongolo Ngemva Kokuhlaselwa EMpumalanga Ephakathi

Okushintshile

Ngokombiko we-AP Business, iBrent ivale ku-$97.89 ngaphambi kokwenyuka ngo-2.4% yaya ku-$100.29 ekuqaleni kukaLwesithathu, okokuqala idlula ku-$100 cishe emasontweni ayisithupha; uwoyela ongahluziwe waseMelika wenyuke ngo-1.9% waya ku-$94.77. Lokhu kwenyuka kulandele ukuhlasela kweMelika emikhunjini emihlanu yase-Iran ethwala uwoyela, ukuhlasela kwamaHouthi okuthungele ngomlilo izikhungo zikawoyela zaseSaudi Arabia, nezinsongo emzileni ohlukile wokuthekelisa waseSaudi Arabia, ngesikhathi ukuthunyelwa okuningi ngomkhumbi eStrait of Hormuz kusamisiwe.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Lena ayiseyona nje indaba yamashadi kawoyela ongahluziwe. Yindaba yezindleko zokuthutha engena ngokushesha ngendlela emangalisayo ezabelweni zokusebenza: uphethiloli wezindiza, udizili, izinkontileka zokuthutha impahla, izindiza, ukulethwa kokudla okusha, ifenisha nemishini yasendlini.

I-petrol ejwayelekile yaseMelika ibimaphakathi ku-$4.15 igaloni ngoLwesibili, kubika i-AP, inyuke ngo-26% kunonyaka odlule; udizili ubuku-$5.90, unyuke ngo-59%. Izinkampani zezindiza sezivele zinciphise izindiza zazo futhi zenyusa imali yokugibela nezindleko ezikhokhiswayo. Lokhu kwenza amathuba okuhamba ngezindiza abe mancane futhi kubeka amabhizinisi athutha izimpahla ezidinga ukufika ngesikhathi noma ezinkulu esimweni esinzima: angathwala izindleko eziphezulu zokuletha, aguqule ukuhlelwa kwezokuthutha, noma acele amakhasimende ukuba abelane ngezindleko.

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okusekelwe olwazini): emasontweni azayo, izindleko zikaphethiloli kungenzeka ziqhubeke ziyisithiyo ngaphandle uma ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kuba kuphephile ngokwethembeka. Umbuzo obalulekile awuwona owokuthi uwoyela ungadlula yini kafushane inani eliyindilinga. Uwukuthi imiphongolo kawoyela ingadlula yini eHormuz nangemizila ehlukile yaseSaudi Arabia ngaphandle kokunye ukuphazamiseka. Yikho okunquma ukuthi izindleko eziphezulu zizoba yikhanda elibuhlungu lesikhashana noma zibe yinto esohlwini lwezindleko eshintsha amanani, imizila nezinqumo mayelana nesitoko.

Ukuqhathanisa nomlando

Ukulandisa kwe-U.S. Energy Information Administration ngokuhlaselwa kweSaudi Arabia ngoSepthemba 2019 kunikeza ukuqhathanisa okuwusizo. Ukuhlasela kwalimaza isikhungo sokucubungula sase-Abqaiq seSaudi Aramco kanye nensimu kawoyela yaseKhurais, kwathi iBrent ne-WTI kwaqopha ukwenyuka kwazo okukhulu kunakho konke ngosuku olulodwa eminyakeni eyishumi eyayandulele.

Indlela efanayo isobala: ukuhlasela kusongela ukuhlinzekwa kwangempela, uwoyela ongahluziwe uyakhuphuka, bese izindleko zikaphethiloli zisakazeka nakweminye imikhakha. Umehluko obalulekile kulokhu mkhulu kakhulu. Ngo-2019, iSaudi Arabia yabuyisela ukukhiqiza nokulayishwa kukawoyela ozothunyelwa ngaphandle emasontweni ambalwa. Umbiko we-AP uchaza izinyanga zokuhamba okulinganiselwe eHormuz, ukwehla kwesitoko, ukungqubuzana okuqhubekayo nokuhlaselwa komzila ohlukile waseSaudi Arabia.

I-EIA yathi amanani abuyela emazingeni angaphambi kokuhlasela ekupheleni kwenyanga ngo-2019 njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwaseSaudi Arabia kululama futhi ukukhathazeka ngokukhula kwesidingo kucindezela amanani. Lokho kusikisela ukuthi ukubuyiselwa okuthembekile kokuhlinzekwa kanye nezinhlelo zokuthekelisa kungathulisa ukushaqeka kukawoyela. Kulokhu, ukufinyelela okuqhubekayo kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kuyinto esemqoka okufanele ibhekwe.

Indlela imiphumela engasakazeka ngayo

Uwoyela ongahluziwe obiza kakhulu wenyusa izindleko zikaphethiloli wezindiza, okungenye yezindleko ezinkulu kakhulu zezinkampani zezindiza. Izinkampani zezindiza ziphendule ngokunciphisa izindiza nangokwenyusa imali yokugibela nezindleko ezikhokhiswayo, okungashiya abahambi bekhokha kakhulu benokukhetha okumbalwa kwezindiza emasontweni ambalwa.

Udizili udlula ngomunye umzila: amaloli, ukulethwa ngokushesha nokuthunyelwa amabanga amade. Abathengisi nabahlinzeki bangathwala ingxenye yaleyo ngcindezi isikhashana, kodwa izindleko eziqhubekayo zingakhuthaza ukuguqulwa kwemizila, ukunciphisa isitoko noma ukunyusa amanani. Ukwehla kwamanani kawoyela noma kaphethiloli wezindiza, noma ukubuyiselwa kwamandla ezindiza, kungaphazamisa lolu chungechunge.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

Izinkampani zezindiza zithinteka ngokushesha ngoba uphethiloli uyizindleko ezinkulu zokusebenza. Indlela ezingazivikelayo ngayo ukulungisa umthamo wezindiza: ukunciphisa izindiza nokwenyusa izindleko kungavikela inzuzo, kodwa futhi kwenze ukuhamba kungafinyeleleki kalula.

Amabhizinisi ancike ekuthuthweni kwempahla abhekene nengcindezi ehamba kancane kodwa ebanzi. Amandla awo okuxoxisana ancike ekutheni izindleko zokuthutha ziqhubeka isikhathi eside ngokwanele yini ukuze zidluliselwe kubathengi. Izimpahla ezihamba amabanga amade noma okufanele zihambe ngokushesha zinendawo encane yokugwema umthelela wodizili.

Abathumeli bangaphandle baseSaudi Arabia babhekene nenkinga eqondile yokuhlelwa kwezokuthutha. Njengoba ukuhamba eHormuz kuminyanisiwe nomzila ohlukile uhlaselwa, ukuba nowoyela otholakalayo akufani nokukwazi ukuwuletha.

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu. Uma ukuhamba eHormuz kuqala ukululama kancane kancane kodwa ukuhlasela nezingxabano zokudlula kuqhubeka, uwoyela ongahluziwe ungahlala untengantenga emasontweni azayo futhi izindleko zikaphethiloli zingagcina izinkampani zezindiza ziqaphile ngomthamo wezindiza, kuyilapho ingcindezi yezindleko zokuthutha impahla iqhubeka. Lesi yisimo esiyisisekelo ngoba i-AP ibika ukuthi abahlaziyi balindele ukululama kancane kancane, kodwa umzila usalinganiselwe futhi izingxoxo zibhidlikile. Ukuhamba okuqhubekayo kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela, ukusebenza okuzinzile komzila waseSaudi Arabia nokuhlala kweBrent ngaphansi kwamazinga okwenyuka okubangelwa ukulimala kwengqalasizinda kungasekela lesi simo.

Okuhle kakhulu. Uma iMelika ne-Iran befinyelela emigomeni esebenzayo yokudlula ngokuphepha futhi ukuhlasela kungawulimazi kakhulu eminye imizila yaseSaudi Arabia noma izikhungo ezinkulu, ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela kungaqala kabusha ngokwethembeka emasontweni noma ezinyangeni. Izindleko zikawoyela ongahluziwe nezokuthutha ngophethiloli zingehla, kuvumele izinkampani zezindiza ukuba zibuyisele ezinye izindiza futhi kwehlise ingcindezi yezindleko zokuletha. Ukwehla kukawoyela ongahluziwe kuhambisana nokuthunyelwa okuqhubekayo kungaqinisa lesi simo.

Okubi kakhulu. Uma ukuhlasela kugcina ukuhamba kulinganiselwe noma kulimaza ingqalasizinda enkulu yamandla, ukuhlinzekwa kwangempela okuya ngokuya kuqina kunganyusa izindleko zikaphethiloli phakathi kwezinsuku nezinyanga. Izinkampani zezindiza zinganciphisa kakhulu izindiza, kuyilapho abathengisi ancike ekuthuthweni kwempahla bengaba nezizathu eziqinile zokudlulisela izindleko kubathengi. I-AP ibika ukuthi abahlaziyi babona uwoyela phakathi kuka-$95 no-$120 uma ukuvinjwa kuqhubeka, kanye nokwenyuka kuze kufike ku-$150 uma ingqalasizinda enkulu ilimala. Ukuhlaselwa okuqhubekayo kwemikhumbi, ukulimala kwengqalasizinda okuqinisekisiwe kanye nezinye izinguquko emalini yokugibela noma emthamo wezindiza kungakhomba kulokhu.

Okufanele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

• Ukuhamba okuqhubekayo nokuphephile kwemikhumbi ethwala uwoyela eStrait of Hormuz.
• Ukuthi iMelika ne-Iran bangavumelana yini ngemigomo yokudlula ngemva kokubhidlika kwezingxoxo ngenxa yokulawula nezimali ezikhokhiswayo.
• Okunye ukulimala kwengqalasizinda kawoyela noma kwemizila yokuthekelisa yaseSaudi Arabia.
• Ukuncishiswa kwezinhlelo zezindiza, ukwenyuswa kwemali yokugibela nezindleko ezihlobene nophethiloli.