Wetin Don Change
As France 24 report of September 8 show, Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow for Simpson Center, describe di US war wit Iran for Persian Gulf as stalemate wey dey cause damage. According to her assessment, neither Washington nor Tehran don find political way out wey dem fit sustain, while US dey face economic and electoral costs, and Iran dey face shortage, inflation, internal opposition and repression wey don become more serious.
Why Dis One Matter
Di hard part for here na how both sides go take maintain their image. Military wahala fit end wit ceasefire; political wahala go only end when both sides fit live wit di story wey dem go tell afterward. Wetin Slavin talk suggest say each government fit get reason to seek relief, but dem get less space to accept terms wey fit make am look like say dem surrender.
Dat one mean say di costs of dis conflict no just dey for background. Shortage and inflation fit reduce di everyday choices wey people get for Iran. Economic and electoral pressure fit reduce di political choices for US. When pressure dey mount for both sides for their own country, finding workable way out go dey more necessary, but e go still hard to sell politically.
Our outlook (informed speculation): if di stalemate wey Slavin describe continue for di coming weeks, pressure to find way out go increase, but compromise no go necessarily become easier.
How E Fit Affect People
- Iranian households: dey exposed, for some weeks. If shortage and inflation continue, access to goods and purchasing power fit weaken more. Repression wey don increase as internal opposition dey go on fit make everyday economic choices even tighter.
- US political leaders: mixed, for some weeks. Di reported economic and electoral costs fit give dem more reason to pursue way out wey fit last. But dat same costs fit make concession harder politically if e look like say dem don accept failure.
- US and Iranian negotiators: dey exposed, for six to 12 months. If maintaining image remain central, any move to reduce tension go need give both governments result wey dem fit present as one wey fit last. Dat condition fit reduce di terms wey either side fit accept.
Possible Outcomes
Di Likeliest One
If neither side get political outcome wey dem fit sustain for di coming weeks, di conflict likely go remain stuck politically. US leaders go continue to weigh di reported economic and electoral costs against di risk of taking way out wey go look like failure, while shortage and inflation continue to limit conditions for Iran. Dis na di starting point because Slavin account show both stalemate and di problem of maintaining image.
Signs wey go strengthen dis possibility include say e still dey hard to identify sustainable way out, more US economic or electoral costs, and shortage or inflation wey continue for Iran. Arrangement to reduce tension wey both sides fit accept, clear political way out for either side, or easing of shortage and inflation for Iran go weaken am.
Better Outcome
If negotiators find terms wey let both Washington and Tehran claim political outcome wey dem fit sustain, negotiated move to reduce tension fit cut di pressure wey di stalemate create over six to 12 months. Dat fit limit di US costs wey Slavin describe and ease di conditions linked to shortage and inflation for Iran.
Settlement framework wey both sides fit accept, lower reported US costs, and better availability of goods or inflation wey dey ease for Iran go support dis path. Repression wey dey increase, opposition wey dey deepen, or economic costs wey dey rise go work against am.
Worse Outcome
If no way to maintain image show and domestic costs continue to gather, di stalemate fit worsen over six to 12 months. US political pressure fit become more serious, while Iranian households go face shortage and inflation wey persist; dat pressure fit then make concession even harder for both governments.
Shortage or inflation wey don worsen well-well, repression wey don increase as opposition dey continue, and more US economic and electoral costs go point to dis direction. Lasting reduction for domestic pressure or credible evidence of political way out wey both sides fit sustain go weaken am.
Wetin To Watch Next
- Whether United States and Iran identify arrangement to reduce tension wey each side fit sustain openly.
- Whether di reported shortage and inflation for Iran go ease or worsen for di coming weeks.
- Whether di US economic and electoral costs wey Slavin mention begin reduce or continue to rise.
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