AmaHouthi Asekelwa yi-Iran Ahlasele Izikhungo Zamandla ZaseSaudi, Uwoyela Uyenyuka

Okushintshile

Ngokwemibiko ye-The Citizen Tanzania, amaHouthi asekelwa yi-Iran ahlasele izikhungo zamandla zaseSaudi namadolobha amane aseningizimu yeSaudi ngoSepthemba 8, kwalimala okungenani abantu abangu-73; iziphathimandla zaseSaudi zibike imililo zathumela namaqembu ezimo eziphuthumayo. Uwoyela ukhuphuke wafinyelela emazingeni aphezulu kunawamasonto angaphezu kwayisithupha, kanti i-Iran nayo iveze ukuthi kungenzeka kumiswe indawo enokungena okulinganiselwe eGulf kanye nomzila omusha wemikhumbi eHormuz.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Yilapho umthelela wokuphazamiseka kwamandla uyeka ukuba yinto ebonakala eshadini kuphela, uqale ukubonakala ezindlekweni zokuqhuba ibhizinisi. Uma imali eyengeziwe ekhokhelwa ngenxa yobungozi bezokuphepha iqhubeka kuze kufike ukuthengwa kukaphethiloli okulandelayo, amabhizinisi ezokuthutha, ezokukhiqiza nawokuthutha impahla angase abhekane nezindleko eziphakeme lapho izinkontileka zivuselelwa. Abathengi abanezinye izindlela zokuthola uwoyela bathola isikhathi esengeziwe; labo abathembele ekulethweni okusheshayo okuvela eGulf bangase babe nendawo encane yokuxoxisana.

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okunolwazi): uwoyela ungagcina intengo ephakeme ngenxa yobungozi bezokuphepha izinsuku noma amasonto, kuyilapho imisebenzi ephuthumayo yaseSaudi nezinqolobane zokuhlinzeka kuvimbela ukushoda okubanzi kukawoyela otholakalayo. Lowo mphumela uncike ekutheni imililo iyalawulwa, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuyaqhubeka, nokuhamba kwezentengiselwano kuhlala kungenzeka eHormuz naseLwandle Olubomvu. Uma lezo zindlela zokuxhumana ziba buthaka kanyekanye, izindleko zikhuphuka kabili: kuqala ekuthengeni uwoyela ongahluziwe, bese kuba ezinhlelweni zemikhumbi nasezintengweni zokuthutha impahla.

Isikhathi Sokugcina Lokhu Kwenzeka

Isifaniso esiseduze kakhulu kwakuwukuhlaselwa kwangoSepthemba 2019 esikhungweni sokucubungula saseSaudi Aramco e-Abqaiq nasensimini kawoyela yaseKhurais. I-akhawunti ye-U.S. Energy Information Administration ikhombisa indlela efanayo eyisisekelo: ukuhlaselwa kwengqalasizinda yamandla yaseSaudi kwashesha kwashintsha indlela imakethe eyayibheka ngayo ubungozi bokuhlinzekwa nokutholakala kukawoyela.

Lokho kushaqeka kwakulawuleke kakhulu. I-EIA ithi amanani abuyela emazingeni angaphambi kokuhlaselwa ekupheleni kwenyanga njengoba ukukhiqizwa kwaseSaudi kululama, izinqolobane nezinye izinkambu zisekela ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, kanti izimo ezibanzi zokuhlinzekwa nesidingo zinciphisa ukunyakaza kwamanani. Kulokhu, ingcindezi ebikiwe idlulela ngale kwezikhungo iye ekuhambeni eHormuz naseLwandle Olubomvu. Ngakho umbuzo oyinhloko awukhona nje ukuthi umlilo uyacishwa yini, kodwa ukuthi ukulayishwa nokudlula kwemikhumbi kusengaqhubeka yini.

Indlela Imiphumela Engasabalala Ngayo

Imililo ezikhungweni ingadala izindleko zokulungisa, ezokuphepha nezokuqinisekisa ukuqhubeka komsebenzi kubaqhubi bamandla baseSaudi ngokushesha. Uma ukuphazamiseka kuthinta ukucubungula, ukugcinwa noma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, uwoyela ongahluziwe otholakalayo uba yigugu kakhulu futhi amakhasimende angase afune eminye imiphongolo kawoyela.

Lokho kungashintsha amandla okuxoxisana kuyiwe kubahlinzeki abanamandla athembekile okuthumela uwoyela kwamanye amazwe. Emasontweni ambalwa, izindleko eziphakeme zikawoyela ongahluziwe zingadlulela ezikweletini zikaphethiloli, izinto zokusetshenziswa nezokuthutha impahla zamabhizinisi ezokuthutha nezokukhiqiza, ngaphandle uma izinqolobane, okunye ukuhlinzekwa noma ukubuyiselwa kokuhamba kwemikhumbi kumunca ukuphazamiseka. Abaqhubi bemikhumbi babhekene nengcindezi esebenzayo esheshayo kakhulu: ukushintsha imizila, umshwalense nemingcele yezinhlelo kungaguqula umzila ovulekile ngokusemthethweni ube umzila ohamba kancane futhi obiza kakhulu.

Kuyo Yonke Imibiko Yethu

Umbiko wethu wangaphambilini, ‘Bashayeni kanzima’: Ingabe uTrump unelinye isu ‘elisha’ nge-Iran, futhi lingasebenza?, uhlaziye ukuthi ukwanda kwempi esifundeni kungaqhubeka yini. Ukuxhumana lapha yisikhathi: ukuhlasela okufushane kunganyusa uwoyela isikhashana, kanti ukungqubuzana okubanzi okuphazamisa ukuhamba olwandle kungashintsha izinqumo zokuthenga nezemizila isikhathi eside.

Ukuhlolwa Komthelela

• Abaqhubi bamandla baseSaudi: bathinteka ngokushesha ezindlekweni zokulungisa, ezokuphepha nezokuqhubeka komsebenzi. Ubungozi buyakhula uma imililo ithinta ukucubungula, ukugcinwa noma ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.
• Amabhizinisi angenisa uwoyela: athinteka emasontweni uma amanani aphezulu kawoyela ongahluziwe edlulela ezindlekweni zikaphethiloli, ezokuthutha impahla nezokukhiqiza lapho ukuthenga kuvuselelwa.
• Amakhasimende kawoyela ongahluziwe waseSaudi: angase adinge okunye ukuhlinzekwa uma ukulayishwa kunqanyulwa, okuthuthukisa isikhundla sabahlinzeki abangaletha ngokuthembekile.
• Abaqhubi bemikhumbi eHormuz naseLwandle Olubomvu: babhekene nezikhuthazo ezixubile. Ukushintsha imizila nesidingo sokuphepha kungakhuphuka, kodwa kanjalo nobungozi kubasebenzi basemikhunjini, imikhumbi nezinhlelo.

Izimo Ezingenzeka

Okungenzeka kakhulu: Uma umonakalo ulinganiselwe noma ulungiseka futhi ukuhamba eHormuz naseLwandle Olubomvu kuhlala kuphazamisekile kodwa kuvulekile, uwoyela ugcina intengo ephakeme ngenxa yobungozi bezokuphepha izinsuku noma amasonto ngaphandle kokushoda kwesikhathi eside kukawoyela otholakalayo. Abathengi bezokuthutha nabezimboni bangakhokha kakhulu ekuthengeni kwesikhashana, bese beqhubeka nokusebenza njengoba izinqolobane zokuhlinzekwa zaseSaudi nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunciphisa ukuphazamiseka. Lesi simo siqina uma imililo ilawulwa, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kuqhubeka nemikhumbi ihamba kancane kodwa isasebenza.

Okuhle: Uma izikhungo zaseSaudi nokulayishwa kubuyela esimweni ngokushesha futhi amalungiselelo olwandle egcina impahla ihamba, abathengi bangancika kancane kwezinye izindlela futhi uwoyela ungase wehlele emazingeni angaphambi kokuhlaselwa emasontweni alandelayo. Ingcindezi yezindleko zikaphethiloli ezinkampanini zokuthutha impahla nakubakhiqizi ingancipha. Icala lango-2019 lisikisela le ndlela lapho ukuhlinzekwa kukawoyela nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kubuyela esimweni ngokushesha kunokwesaba kwasekuqaleni.

Okubi: Uma ukuhlasela kuqhubeka futhi izinyathelo zase-Iran zikhawulela ngokubonakalayo ukudlula eHormuz noma eLwandle Olubomvu, umthamo othembekile wokuthumela uwoyela kwamanye amazwe ungancipha emasontweni kuya ezinyangeni. Abathengi bangahlela kabusha izinkontileka zokuhlinzekwa, imikhumbi ingashintsha imizila, kanti izindleko eziphakeme zikaphethiloli nezokuthutha impahla zingacindezela abakhiqizi neminotho encike ekungeniseni impahla. Ukuphazamiseka okuqinisekisiwe, ukwehla kokuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala impahla kanye nokunye ukuhlaselwa kwezikhungo zamandla kungakhomba kuleyo ndlela.

Okumele Kubhekwe Ngokulandelayo

• Izibuyekezo zomnyango wamandla waseSaudi mayelana nokusebenza kwezikhungo, ukuphazamiseka namandla okuthumela kwamanye amazwe.
• Imininingwane ethenjisiwe ye-Iran ngendawo enokungena okulinganiselwe eGulf nomzila wemikhumbi eHormuz.
• Ukuhamba kwemikhumbi ethwala impahla eHormuz nokuthi imikhumbi iyashintsha yini imizila.
• Ukunyakaza kwentengo kawoyela ngemva kolwazi oluqinisekisiwe lokulungisa, ukulayisha noma ukudlula kwemikhumbi.