Houthis Capture Perim Island on Bab al-Mandab Shipping Route

What changed

Iran-aligned Houthi forces have captured Perim, also known as Mayun, a volcanic island near the narrowest point of the Bab al-Mandab strait, after forces supporting Yemen’s UN-backed, Aden-based government withdrew. The Houthis have also captured the port city of Mocha. Saudi Arabia, which supports and funds the government, carried out air raids on Houthi positions in Mocha on Friday, according to The Guardian.

Perim divides the waterway linking Asia with Europe through the Red Sea and Suez Canal. About 12% of the world’s goods normally pass through the strait. More than 46,000 people have fled the fighting over the past week, the UN migration agency said.

Why it matters

The capture expands Houthi control along Yemen’s western coast and gives the Iran-aligned movement a strategic position over a major shipping route. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab to export crude as Iran targets vessels around the Strait of Hormuz.

If the Houthis gain effective control of shipping through Bab al-Mandab while Iran retains leverage over Hormuz, anti-western forces would hold pressure points at both ends of an important energy corridor. Oil prices have already risen above $100 a barrel as fighting escalates.

The Houthi advance also strengthens Iran’s position in negotiations over Hormuz. Iran has agreed temporary approved shipping routes with Oman, and Gulf Cooperation Council foreign ministers are due to discuss the proposed arrangement in Salalah on Monday. If accepted, the arrangement could increase pressure on the US to ease its blockade of Iranian oil ports.

What to watch next

• Whether Houthi forces continue advancing toward Aden, the government’s capital.
• Whether Saudi Arabia expands its air campaign or seeks a political arrangement.
• Whether shipping through Bab al-Mandab is disrupted, rerouted or subjected to new restrictions.
• The GCC ministers’ response to the proposed Hormuz routes.
• Whether Donald Trump authorizes US strikes on Houthi positions; British diplomatic sources said they did not currently expect him to do so.