Umbiko Wokwehla Kwamandla Emali e-US Ungase Uvulele I-Federal Reserve Indlela Yokwenyusa Inzalo

Okushintshile

Ngokombiko we-France 24, uMnyango Wezabasebenzi wase-US kulindeleke ukuthi ushicilele idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali kubathengi yango-Agasti ngoLwesihlanu. Izazi zomnotho zilindele ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali konyaka kube ngu-3.4%, kungashintshile uma kuqhathaniswa noJulayi kodwa kusengaphezulu kakhulu komgomo we-Federal Reserve ongu-2%. Lokhu kungase kuvulele i-Fed indlela yokwenyusa inzalo okokuqala eminyakeni engaphezu kwemithathu emhlanganweni wesonto elizayo.

Umbiko uthi abahwebi babeka amathuba okwenyuswa ngekota yephuzu ku-71.4%. Izindleko zamandla zenyukile ngemuva kokuphazamiseka okwenzeka ezindaweni ezizungeze i-Strait of Hormuz, kwenyusa amanani kaphethiloli nodizili.

Kungani Lokhu Kubalulekile

Lokhu kuyigcindezi evela nhlangothi zombili. Uphethiloli usuvele udla ingxenye enkulu yemali esetshenziswa yimindeni nezindleko zamabhizinisi. Ukwenyuswa kwenzalo kuzobe sekubiza kakhulu izikweletu zezindlu, isikweletu kanye nokuboleka imali entsha.

Inkinga ye-Fed ukuthi inzalo ephezulu inganciphisa isidingo, kodwa ayikwazi ukuvula kabusha umzila wamandla ophazamisekile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi imindeni ingabhekana nophethiloli obizayo kanye nesikweletu esibizayo ngesikhathi esisodwa. Izinkampani zezokuthutha, ezolimo nezokwakha yizo ezingase zithinteke kakhulu: udizili unyusa izindleko zazo zokusebenza, kanti inzalo ephezulu yenza kube nzima ukuxhasa ngezimali imishini, amaholo nokwandisa ibhizinisi.

UMongameli Donald Trump usefune inzalo ephansi njengoba abavoti bekhathazeka ngezindleko zokuphila. Ukwenyuswa kwenzalo kuzobeka i-Fed endleleni yokungqubuzana naleso sidingo sezombusazwe, ikakhulukazi uma abenzi bezinqumo benquma ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali sekudlulela nangale kwamandla.

Isikhathi sokugcina lokhu kwenzeka

NgoMashi 2022, i-Federal Reserve yaqala ukwenyusa inzalo ngesikhathi ukwehla kwamandla emali kuphakanyiswa ukungalingani phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nesidingo kanye nokwenyuka kwamanani amandla. Isimemezelo se-Fed saba ukuqala komjikelezo wokuqinisa inqubomgomo owagcina unyuse inzalo isuka cishe kuziro yaya ku-5%-5.25% ngoMeyi 2023.

Ukufana kucacile: ukushaqeka kwamandla okuvela ngaphandle kwakukhulisa ukwehla kwamandla emali ngesikhathi i-Fed ilinganisa ukuzinza kwamanani nomonakalo emnothweni. Umehluko nawo ubaluleke ngokufanayo. Inzalo manje isiphakathi kuka-3.50% no-3.75%, kanti lo mbiko ukhuluma ngokwenyuswa okukodwa okungenzeka, hhayi uchungechunge lokwenyuswa oselwaziwa.

I-retrospective yakamuva ye-Fed yathi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehla kusukela esiqongweni sakho, kanti ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi akuzange kwenyuke kakhulu. Nokho, inzalo ephezulu yanciphisa ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindlini nokusetshenziswa kwezimpahla, kanti imiphumela emisebenzini yafika kancane. Lokhu kusikisela ukuthi kufanele kubhekwe izindlu nokusetshenziswa kwemali ezinyangeni ezimbalwa ezizayo, kukhunjulwa nokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwangaphambilini kwasizwa nayizimo zokuhlinzekwa ezazithuthuka.

Imiphumela ingasabalala kanjani

Umbono wethu (ukuqagela okunolwazi): indlela engenzeka kakhulu iwukuba kube nombiko oqinile we-CPI bese kulandela ukwenyuswa kwenzalo, imiphumela yokuqala ibonakale ezindlekweni zokuboleka ngaphambi kokuthi ibonakale ekwakheni noma emisebenzini.

Uchungechunge lwezehlakalo lungaba kanje:

• Ukufundwa okuphezulu kokwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo kuqinisa izizathu zokwenyusa inzalo.
• Ababolekisi nezimakethe badlulisela kubaboleki izindleko eziphezulu zokuxhasa ngezimali.
• Isidingo semali mboleko yezindlu kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwamabhizinisi kuyehla phakathi kwezinyanga eziyisithupha nezingu-12.
• Abakhi bezindlu babhekana nabathengi abambalwa, kanti imindeni enesikweletu esisha noma esinenzalo eguqukayo iba nemali encane yokusebenzisa ezintweni ezingabalulekile.

Lolu chungechunge lungaphazamiseka uma amanani amandla ehla, i-Fed ithatha lokhu kwenyuka njengento eyodwa, noma ababoleki bethembele kakhulu ezikweletini ezinenzalo engaguquki kanye nemali etholakalayo.

Ukuhlolwa komthelela

• Imindeni yase-US: Cishe izolahlekelwa uma inzalo ikhuphuka. Izindleko zikaphethiloli sezidla ingxenye yemali engenayo; izindleko eziphezulu zesikweletu sabathengi nezemali mboleko yezindlu zizonciphisa nakakhulu imali esele yokusebenzisa.

• Abakhi bezindlu nabathengi abangaba khona: Basengozini phakathi kwezinyanga eziyisithupha nezingu-12. Inzalo ephezulu yemali mboleko yezindlu ingabambezela ukuthenga futhi inciphise ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindlini.

• Izinkampani zezokuthutha, ezolimo nezokwakha: Imiphumela ixubene kodwa zisengozini. Udizili usuvele unyusa izindleko zokusebenza. Inzalo ephezulu ingangeza ingcindezi yokuxhasa ngezimali ngaphandle kokulungisa ukuphazamiseka kwamandla.

• I-Federal Reserve: Isengozini kwezombusazwe nakwezomnotho. Inqubomgomo eqinile ingaqinisa ukwethembeka kwayo ekulweni nokwehla kwamandla emali, kodwa inganciphisa nesidingo ngesikhathi ukushaqeka okuyinhloko kusahlobene nokuhlinzekwa kwamandla.

Izimo ezingase zenzeke

Okungenzeka kakhulu

Uma ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo kungaphezu noma kulingana nalokho okulindelekile, i-Fed izokwenyusa inzalo ngesonto elizayo futhi iveze ukuthi okunye ukuqina kusengenzeka. Izindleko zemali mboleko yezindlu nokuboleka kwamabhizinisi zizokhuphuka, kulandele ukwehla kwesidingo sezindlu nezimpahla ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12 ezizayo.

Okuhle

Uma amanani amandla ezinzile futhi ukufundwa kokwehla kwamandla emali kamuva kwehle, i-Fed izokwenza isinyathelo esilinganiselwe bese izindleko zokuboleka ziyeka ukwenyuka maduze. Ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindlini nasemabhizinisini kuzogwema ukwehla okukhulu, ngaphandle uma ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo kuhlala kuphezulu.

Okubi

Uma ukuphazamiseka kwe-Strait of Hormuz kugcina amanani kaphethiloli ephezulu futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo kwenqaba ukwehla, i-Fed izoqhubeka nokuqinisa inqubomgomo ngaphezu kokwenyuswa okukodwa. Ukusetshenziswa kwemali yimindeni nokutshalwa kwezimali ezindlini kuzokwehla, kanti izinkampani zezokuthutha, ezolimo nezokwakha zizobhekana nezindleko eziphezulu zikaphethiloli nezokuxhasa ngezimali.

Okufanele kubhekwe ngokulandelayo

• NgoLwesihlanu: I-CPI iyonke neyisisekelo yango-Agasti, iqhathaniswa nokulindeleka kokwehla kwamandla emali konyaka okungu-3.4% kanye nomgomo we-Fed ongu-2%.
• Ngesonto elizayo: Isinqumo se-Fed ngenzalo nokuthi ngabe izinkomba zayo zishiya yini amathuba okunye ukwenyuswa.
• Emasontweni alandelayo: Amanani kaphethiloli nodizili, ikakhulukazi izindleko ezibikwa ngamabhizinisi ezokuthutha, ezolimo nezokwakha.
• Ezinyangeni eziyisithupha kuya kweziyi-12: Inzalo yemali mboleko yezindlu, ukutshalwa kwezimali ezindlini kanye nokusetshenziswa kwezimpahla.