Trump Says Iran War Oil Prices May Stay High Until Midterms

What changed

Based on AP News reporting, President Donald Trump said oil prices elevated by the Iran war are unlikely to fall before the U.S. midterm elections. Brent crude rose more than 3% above $100, U.S. crude gained 2.4% to $95.25 a barrel, average regular gasoline rose 7 cents overnight to $4.22 a gallon, and average diesel reached $5.94.

Trump said he expects oil prices to tumble and the war to end after the elections, though both remain uncertain. The conflict is in its seventh month, despite his earlier expectation that it would last weeks.

Why This Matters

The immediate bill is already visible at the pump. But diesel is the quieter problem: it powers shipping and production, so a fuel shock can travel from a filling station into freight invoices, supplier prices and eventually the cost of delivered goods.

Air travel is already feeling the squeeze. Carriers have cut flights while raising fares and fees as jet fuel costs climb, making a smaller menu of more expensive trips a practical near-term possibility. The president’s timetable is a political prediction, not a price guarantee; the practical question is whether the attacks and supply-risk fears ease enough for fuel costs to retreat.

How the effects could spread

Higher diesel costs raise operating costs for freight and production operators. If diesel remains elevated and carriers or suppliers can add surcharges or renegotiate prices, businesses buying transported inputs may face higher delivered costs over coming weeks.

That chain can break if diesel retreats, firms absorb costs in their margins, or competition and existing contracts block pass-through. Freight is not magic; it is a series of invoices, each one deciding whether to swallow the cost or send it along.

Across our coverage

Finance coverage can track whether attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the jump in crude translate into diesel, freight and input-cost pressure, separating observed fuel prices from conditional pass-through. See Houthi attacks ignite fires at Saudi oil facilities and wound 73 people.

Impact assessment

• Motorists: Immediate losers. Average gasoline is $4.22 a gallon after the overnight increase.
• Air passengers: Losers over days. Flight cuts and higher fares and fees mean less service and more expensive travel.
• Air carriers: Mixed. Higher charges may recover some fuel costs, but reduced capacity constrains operations.
• Freight-dependent businesses: Exposed over weeks. Persistent diesel costs could weaken their ability to hold delivered prices steady.

Scenarios

Our outlook (informed speculation):

Most likely. If military tension and disruption risk persist without a prompt, durable easing, crude and diesel prices remain elevated over the next several weeks. Airlines maintain a mix of reduced flights, higher fares and fees, while freight operators seek to preserve or expand fuel-cost recovery. This is the baseline because prices are already rising and airlines have already adjusted operations. It would be strengthened by continued high gasoline and diesel prices, airline cuts, and new freight surcharges; it would weaken if fuel prices retreat and capacity returns without higher charges.

Upside. If attacks on tankers and Saudi oil facilities decline enough to ease supply fears, crude and fuel prices could fall over weeks to months. Airlines would have less reason to constrain flights or add charges, while freight-dependent businesses could hold delivered costs steadier. Falling crude, gasoline and diesel prices, alongside added flights or lower fuel-related charges, would support this path.

Downside. If military action, tanker incidents or attacks on Saudi facilities continue, fuel costs could rise further within days or weeks. Airlines could make additional cuts, and more freight operators could pass diesel costs to customers, putting broader pressure on delivered goods. Further strikes, higher crude and diesel prices, and wider fuel surcharges would point in this direction.

What to watch next

• Brent and U.S. crude prices after military or infrastructure developments.
• AAA’s average gasoline and diesel updates.
• Airline announcements on flights, fares and fees.
• Confirmed reports of attacks involving tankers, Navy vessels or Saudi oil facilities.